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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Aug. 28 – Coors is King!

By Brian Tulloch

DENVER, CO - AUGUST 27: A general view of the stadium as the Boston Red Sox face the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 27, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - AUGUST 27: A general view of the stadium as the Boston Red Sox face the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 27, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 06: Mike Foltynewicz #26 of the Atlanta Braves pitches against the Minnesota Twins on August 6, 2019 at the Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Braves 12-7. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Pitching Breakdown:

At first glance, this slate is somewhat similar to last night in that we have a handful of top-tier arms like Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer all wrapped around another two touchdown total in Coors Field. The issue I see tonight is that the punt plays are far less appealing which makes paying all the way down at pitcher a tougher ask if you want to go with Coors bats or other expensive stacks.

The mid-tier, however, is intriguing and rather than pay over $24K for Cole or over $21K for Scherzer who threw only 71 pitches and is admittedly still working his way back, I think you can pay down and get yourself the bats that will make the difference on this slate.

After a strong 2018, Braves RHP Mike Foltynewicz ($14.4K) was expected to take another step forward in 2019 but he scuffled out of the gate, seeing his K rate drop from just under 28% last year to only 19.2% through the end of June. Since returning to the rotation in August, Folty has looked much more like the 2018 version of himself, boasting a 26% K rate and 12% swinging strike rate as he relies heavily on his slider at 32%, which is 5% more than he was using it earlier in the season.

While the fantasy totals in this stretch have been solid at 18 FPPG, what really stands out to me are the pitch counts, as Folty has gone over 100 pitches in each of his last four outings all while racking up 7 K’s in 3 of those 4 outings. The match-up with Toronto puts him against a projected line-up with a 25.9% K rate against RHP this season, which gives Folty the opportunity to have a similar K output as he has had in recent outings and makes for a solid mid-range spend with K upside.

Sandy Alcantara ($13.5K) will likely not even be the most popular arm in his own game as I expect folks to go right back to a Reds arm against the Marlins as they did with Luis Castillo last night. So while the masses look at Anthony DeSclafani, I think getting leverage with the Marlins right-hander is an interesting pivot on this slate.

Alcantara is coming off a three-game stretch where he went at least 7 innings against the Braves (twice) and once against Colorado in Coors Field, putting up 12, 19 and 26 fantasy points while surrendering only 5 ER in 21.2 IP.

Alcantara is at his best at home against RHB where he sees his K rate spike to 24% and with the Reds having 5 of their 9 projected bats hitting from the right side in massive Marlins park, Alcantara once again could deliver strong results.

One interesting note looking at the most recent three games is that Alcantara is moving away from his secondary fringe offerings like his curve and change-up and utilizing his fastball 7% more, throwing it 62% of the time at an increased velocity of 96.3 MPH, which is a full MPH faster than the season to date.

On a night where I think bats are the key once again, Folty and Alcantara are solid mid-range options with K upside that have routinely worked deep into games and step to the mound in strong recent form.