Fansided

EPL DFS Breakdown – Saturday 8/31/2019

By Vince Dray

BOURNEMOUTH, ENGLAND - AUGUST 25: Raheem Sterling of Manchester City celebrates scoring their 2nd goal during the Premier League match between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City at Vitality Stadium on August 25, 2019 in Bournemouth, United Kingdom. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
BOURNEMOUTH, ENGLAND - AUGUST 25: Raheem Sterling of Manchester City celebrates scoring their 2nd goal during the Premier League match between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City at Vitality Stadium on August 25, 2019 in Bournemouth, United Kingdom. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Offside/Offside via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
2 of 6
Next
BOURNEMOUTH, ENGLAND – AUGUST 25: Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City celebrate their teams second goal during the Premier League match between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City at Vitality Stadium on August 25, 2019 in Bournemouth, United Kingdom. (Photo by Matt McNulty – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images)
BOURNEMOUTH, ENGLAND – AUGUST 25: Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City celebrate their teams second goal during the Premier League match between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City at Vitality Stadium on August 25, 2019 in Bournemouth, United Kingdom. (Photo by Matt McNulty – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images) /

Top-Tier Forwards/Midfielders

Raheem Sterling (Brighton @ Manchester City, $24) – It is insanely hard to not give the top spot to Sterling this week.  He has started this season in tremendous form, scoring in 5 goals in City’s first 3 games.  This is also a massive plus matchup for him, and other City attackers like Sergio Aguero ($22) and Kevin de Bruyne ($20), as 3-goal favorites at home against Brighton.  Sterling (-164) and Aguero (-250) have great Vegas odds at scoring but pairing them together will be tough.  I would rather pair one of them with de Bruyne who doesn’t necessarily need to score to hit value.  Either way, this is a week where I wouldn’t hesitate to eat the City chalk.

Sadio Mane (Liverpool @ Burnley, $20) – I already mentioned that Liverpool are considerable favorites on Saturday but paying for their top attackers like Mane or Mo Salah ($24) is riskier than paying for top-tier City exposure.  The main difference for that is Liverpool being on the road at City being at home.  Last season, Liverpool scored 1.8 goals per game on the road while Manchester City scored 3.0 at home.  If you want to get exposure to both big favorites on Saturday, pairing Mane and a City attacker is the move.  I’m more comfortable moving down from Salah to save the $4, and Mane still has really good odds to score at -111.

Sebastien Haller (Norwich @ West Ham, $18) – There are a handful of names that I like in this top-tier category not on Manchester City or Liverpool so they’ll all likely be low owned.  The one I like the most is Haller.  West Ham paid a large fee to get him from Eintracht Frankfurt this summer.  Since the start of 2015, Haller has scored at a great rate (47% of his appearances).  He also led the Bundesliga in shots attempted last season.  Haller broke through with 2 goals against Watford last week, and he has a plus matchup this week against a Norwich defense that struggled in the Championship last season.  He has the best odds to score in this game at -105, which is actually higher than Mane’s odds.  He’s a primary GPP target for anyone looking to fade Liverpool and Manchester City.

While we’re on the topic of expensive GPP targets, Teemu Pukki ($20) must be mentioned.  Three short weeks ago no one knew who he was.  Now he’s 1 of just 4 players to score in all three of the first games (Sterling and Aguero are 2 as well).  I don’t love this matchup for him on the road, but you can’t argue with a guy who’s an established scorer on a hot streak.  Ashley Barnes ($18) is the 4th player who has scored in all his team’s games so far.  Last year, Liverpool allowed the least goals in the league, but this year they’ve given up at 1 goal in all games.  If that trend continues, it’s most likely Barnes who scores at home for Burnley.