Fansided

EPL DFS Breakdown – Saturday 8/31/2019

By Vince Dray

BOURNEMOUTH, ENGLAND - AUGUST 25: Raheem Sterling of Manchester City celebrates scoring their 2nd goal during the Premier League match between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City at Vitality Stadium on August 25, 2019 in Bournemouth, United Kingdom. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
BOURNEMOUTH, ENGLAND - AUGUST 25: Raheem Sterling of Manchester City celebrates scoring their 2nd goal during the Premier League match between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City at Vitality Stadium on August 25, 2019 in Bournemouth, United Kingdom. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Offside/Offside via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
3 of 6
Next
NORWICH, ENGLAND – AUGUST 24: Goal scorer Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham of Chelsea celebrate after their second goal during the Premier League match between Norwich City and Chelsea FC at Carrow Road on August 24, 2019 in Norwich, United Kingdom. (Photo by Chelsea Football Club/Chelsea FC via Getty Images)
NORWICH, ENGLAND – AUGUST 24: Goal scorer Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham of Chelsea celebrate after their second goal during the Premier League match between Norwich City and Chelsea FC at Carrow Road on August 24, 2019 in Norwich, United Kingdom. (Photo by Chelsea Football Club/Chelsea FC via Getty Images) /

Mid-Tier Forwards/Midfielders

Tammy Abraham (Sheffield United @ Chelsea, $16) – If you followed the EPL 2 years ago, you might recognize this name as a guy who had a brutal season with Swansea where he only scored 5 goals in 31 games.  However, Abraham was crucial in helping Aston Villa return to the Premier League with 25 goals last season.  He’s been training well with the Chelsea first team, and after a few tough weeks to begin this season, he broke through with 2 goals last week against Norwich.  Abraham is -105 to score again on Saturday.  Sheffield have been decent this season, but they’ve played Leicester, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth.  Chelsea is favored significantly (-290 on the money line), but I have a feeling they go overlooked on Saturday.  It’s a little difficult to rely on any other Chelsea attackers right now for fantasy purposes, but Ross Barkley ($14) has been playing well and won’t break your bank.

James Maddison (Bournemouth @ Leicester, $16) – It hasn’t been the best start to the fantasy season for Maddison, but if you look past his 12.5 fantasy points per game, you’ll see that he has 2 consecutive games with an assist.  The big bummer is that he has only created 7 chances all season, and last year he was doing that in just one game sometimes.  However, I have the belief that Maddison changes that around this week.  City was able to create 18 chances against Bournemouth last week and scored 3 goals.  Obviously, Leicester isn’t the same level of an attacking team, but Bournemouth’s defense was leaky last season, and Maddison can exploit them.  People will see Maddison’s game log and run the other direction, so you could get a good player at super low ownership here.

Speaking of getting a good player at low ownership, Jamie Vardy ($16) is almost never chalky and definitely won’t be on this slate.  Vardy is the most likely to score in this game according to Vegas at -139.  He scored last week and often scores in bunches.  It’s worth mentioning again that the goal total in this game is 3.0, which sits only behind Brighton @ City.

Joelinton (Watford @ Newcastle, $16) – The more I dive into this slate, the more I’m finding good plays, not on City or Liverpool.  Joelinton sparks my interest as a mid-tier player with goal upside.  He got himself his first EPL goal last week against a tough opponent in Tottenham.  This week he draws one of the best matchups early this season.  Watford has allowed 7 goals in just 3 games this year, including giving up 3 twice (to Brighton and West Ham).  Newcastle had major scoring troubles last year and they lost both of their strikers, however, Joelinton has the best odds to score in this game according to Vegas.

The over/under for this game is a modest 2.5, and with many other great spots on this slate, I’m going to limit my exposure.  However, value guys like Jonjoe Shelvey ($12) and Miguel Almiron ($8) can be found here.  Almiron is +225 to score in this game, and you won’t find many players with better odds for minimum price.  On the Watford side of things, Andre Gray ($14) filled Troy Deeney’s shoes well last week with a goal and 3 chances created.  He understandably got a price bump this week, but he’s still Watford’s best option to score at +250.

Manuel Lanzini (Norwich @ West Ham, $14) – Lanzini followed up his 24.2 point game with another nice 19.3 point game last week.  He created 10 chances in those 2 games, and this is a perfect game for him to add to that even more.  Norwich hasn’t been able to contain anyone on defense this season.  They gave up a ton of goals in the Championship last season and they’ve already conceded 8 this year in 3 games.  West Ham is a great place to get your value pieces to fit with your top Liverpool/City studs.  Andriy Yarmolenko ($12) and Mark Noble ($12) are +175 and +225 respectively to score and are viable if you don’t have the extra $2 for Lanzini.

I mentioned a good number of value forwards/midfielders throughout the article so far, so I’m am not going to write them up again.  On top of that, I don’t see many other value plays worth mentioning.  For those who missed them my top value plays are Jonjoe Shelvey, Miguel Almiron, Andriy Yarmolenko, and Mark Noble.  One additional punt that I would consider if you need a guy is Dale Stephens ($10).