Fansided

Fantasy Football 2019 Player Profile: Derrick Henry

By Joe Metz

NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 30: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans plays against Darius Leonard #53 of the Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium on December 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 30: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans plays against Darius Leonard #53 of the Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium on December 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
3 of 5
Next
NASHVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 30: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans plays against Darius Leonard #53 of the Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium on December 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 30: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans plays against Darius Leonard #53 of the Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium on December 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Football: Player Profile – Derrick Henry

Best Case Scenario for 2019

We may have already gotten a glimpse at Henry’s ceiling during his torrid 4-week stretch to close out the 2018 season, but if that’s his best-case scenario, fantasy owners should be licking their chops at the ceiling here.

Let’s dive one step deeper into those 4 specific weeks that vaulted his season, outlined below:

  • Week 14 vs JAX: 17 carries, 238 rushing yards, 4 TDs
  • Week 15 @ NYG: 33 carries, 170 rushing yards, 2 TDs
  • Week 16 vs WAS: 21 carries, 84 rushing yards, 1 TD
  • Week 17 vs IND: 16 carries, 93 rushing yards

At first glance, Week 14 sticks out like a sore thumb. You could argue that this was not only the best showing by a running back all season but over the last handful of seasons. Over that span, Henry averaged over 20 touches per game and over 145 rushing yards while finding the end-zone with regularity.

With the Titans out of the playoff picture, the coaching staff had no inherent need to rely on a workhorse back to carry them to wins, but this could have been the Titans showcasing what they envision for the 2019 season and seeing if it works.

Henry still has Dion Lewis behind him operating as the change-of-pace back on third downs but was still able to log 215 rushing attempts and handle over 50% of the team’s red-zone carries (52.17%).

Hypothetically, if we expanded those 4 games above into a 16-game pace, Henry would have produced 2,340 rushing yards on 348 carries (6.72 yards per attempt) and 28 touchdowns. Unsustainable? Definitely. Noteworthy? Absolutely.

While Henry will not sustain that incredible 4-game pace, even if you bumped him down to 18 carries per game (288 total), and his 6.72 yards-per-attempt down to 4.8, that would still set him at 1,382 rushing yards on the season. This feels like a realistic ceiling for Henry given his overall season last year in addition to the breakout. He has a good shot to reach double-digit touchdowns if the Titans can pound the ball into the red-zone enough as well. If Henry were to rush for roughly 1,400 yards and score 12 touchdowns, fantasy owners could walk away puffing their chests that they drafted a back-end RB1 in the third or fourth rounds of their drafts.

Home/Fantasy Football