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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Aug. 29 – A Perfect Storm

By Brian Tulloch

MESA, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs poses during Chicago Cubs Photo Day on February 20, 2018 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
MESA, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs poses during Chicago Cubs Photo Day on February 20, 2018 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – AUGUST 11: Pitcher Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets sets to pitch in an MLB baseball game against the Washington Nationals on August 11, 2019 at Citi Field in the Queens borough of New York City. Nationals won 7-4. (Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – AUGUST 11: Pitcher Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets sets to pitch in an MLB baseball game against the Washington Nationals on August 11, 2019 at Citi Field in the Queens borough of New York City. Nationals won 7-4. (Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Pitching Breakdown:

Thursday night we have only a 6 game MLB DFS slate with a game in Coors Field and a 14 IRT – if you thought Coors was chalky normally, well buckle up for the ownership here tonight.

After consecutive slates where I argued to eat the Coors chalk, tonight I think is the night you jump off and prioritize elsewhere and the rationale is simple, when Boston was in town you were prioritizing one of the best offenses in baseball in the best hitting environment in baseball – now, well let’s just say the Pittsburgh Pirates don’t carry quite that offensive designation.

Instead, I would argue that making pitching your priority tonight is the key and that all starts with the best pitcher on the slate and possibly in baseball – Jacob deGrom ($23K) at home against the Cubs in what is essentially a must-win for the New York Mets.

After dropping the first two games in this series, this is about as critical a game for the Mets as you could have in August, as getting swept by the Cubs would put them 5 games out of the Wild Card versus a win leaving them only 3 games back. As a Mets fan, this is the guy you want on the mound in a game this crucial.

When deGrom is at home he is essentially a must-play for me as his numbers consistently throughout his career have been off the charts in New York and in 2019, it is no different. deGOAT has a 32.3% K rate at home this season and is coming off a 13 strikeout masterpiece against the Braves his last time out which was good for 36.75 fantasy points. If you are fading Coors tonight, deGrom is stop #1 on your roster build.

If you opt to pay up for deGrom, I think paying all the way down at SP2 is the way to go and there are two options at similar price points that I think are in play – Felix Hernandez ($9.5K) and Derek Rodriguez ($9.3K).

In both cases, you are talking about sub 20% K arms (hence the price tag) but that also happen to be facing high strikeout lineups against RHP as Texas (24.4%) and San Diego (26.5%) represent two of the highest K teams on this slate.

I think King Felix will likely get the higher ownership due to name recognition, and if that is the case, I think D-Rod is the easy pivot as he gets the same K heavy match-up in a far easier ballpark in San Francisco.

Rodriguez has been about as boom or bust as you could ask for recently, with 2 road starts where he registered negative points and 2 road starts (Colorado and Arizona) where he went for 20+ fantasy points. Rodriguez faced the Padres once this season at home, all the way back in April, tossing 7 innings of 2 run ball with 5 K’s and 18 fantasy points. At his $9K price tag tonight, I will sign up for a similar output right now and happily move on to my bats.