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MLB DFS picks and pivots September 2 – Happy Gleyber day

By Brian Tulloch

BALTIMORE, MD - MAY 22: Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees celebrates with third base coach Phil Nevin #88 after hitting a home run in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 22, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - MAY 22: Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees celebrates with third base coach Phil Nevin #88 after hitting a home run in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 22, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
HOUSTON, TX – APRIL 25: Robinson Chirinos #28 of the Houston Astros celebrates with Gerrit Cole #45 in the second inning during the game against the Cleveland Indians at Minute Maid Park on Thursday, April 25, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Loren Elliott/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Pitching breakdown:

Monday’s 10 game MLB DFS slate has one clear top-tier arm with Astros RHP Gerrit Cole ($23.9K) taking the hill against a banged-up Brewers squad in Milwaukee. Cole’s metrics on the season are elite simply as stand-alone numbers, with a 38% K rate and 16% swinging-strike rate, however, when compared to the rest of the arms on the slate, they look even more impressive. Cole has a K rate that is 12.5% higher than the next closest arm today and a swinging-strike rate that is 3.4% higher than the second-highest arm – which puts him in a category all his own and much like we saw yesterday with Justin Verlander, a scary SP1 fade.

From an SP2 perspective, there are a handful of mid-range arms that you can easily pair with Cole here today with my favorite being Masahiro Tanaka ($16.2K) at home against the Rangers. The Rangers projected lineup has an over 23% K rate against RHP this season and Tanaka is coming off one of his best performances of the season where he struck out 7 Mariners over 7 shutout innings on his way to 31 fantasy points.

Tanaka has had two ceiling games in his last four trips to the mound, with his Mariners gem coming just a few starts after an 8 inning, 4 k, 28 fantasy point shutout against the Blue Jays. The similarities in those starts coming down to pitch usage as Tanaka relied heavily on his slider, at 40%, which is a 4% uptick on that pitch type in 2019.

Jake Malihot at Fangraphs did a tremendous job of breaking down another subtle change with Tanaka, his new splitter grip, which has come about as a result of the new ball that MLB is using in 2019. Tanaka has been vocal that the new ball was not generating the same diving movement in the slider, acting more like a two-seam fastball and as a result, Tanaka was forced to change his grip in order to get the same results he has always had with this pitch.

In his two most recent starts, Tanaka is using his splitter 32% of the time, generating a 24% K rate and 12% swinging strike rate in those two outings which are the two best marks since he moved to this new grip.

Tanaka feels like the obvious cash game SP2 play here today, a -200 home favorite, and while I expect he will be popular, I think the price remains far too low on the Yankees right-hander. The other issue – rain – we have thunderstorms expected in the NY area this afternoon so keep an eye on the weather here before locking in Tanaka as our SP2 alongside Cole.