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MLB DFS picks and pivots September 3 – Angels in the outfield

By Brian Tulloch

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 16: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels shakes the hand of teammate Shohei Ohtani #17 at home plate after Trout hit a solo home run as catcher James McCann #33 of the Chicago White Sox looks on during the fifth inning of the MLB game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 16, 2019 in Anaheim, California. The White Sox defeated the Angels 7-2. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 16: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels shakes the hand of teammate Shohei Ohtani #17 at home plate after Trout hit a solo home run as catcher James McCann #33 of the Chicago White Sox looks on during the fifth inning of the MLB game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 16, 2019 in Anaheim, California. The White Sox defeated the Angels 7-2. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 29: Mike Clevinger #52 of the Cleveland Indians pitches against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning at Comerica Park on August 29, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS: Tuesday pitching breakdown

Looking over the most recent MLB DFS slates you will start to see a trend in winning line-ups for GPP’s as day by day, the winning builds anchor to a stud SP1 with elite K upside and utilizes a 6 man stack on FantasyDraft around them.

Today, we have an obvious SP1 to pay up for in Mike Clevinger ($24.2K) who will take his slate leading 36.3% K rate to the mound against the strikeout heavy Chicago White Sox. Not only has Clevinger been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball over the last month, a 35.3% K rate which is the 4th best mark in the league, but he also gets to take on a White Sox projected lineup with a 26.3% K rate against RHP this season.

Clevinger faced the White Sox back in April and twirled 7 shutout innings with 12 K’s on his way to 37 fantasy points and will step to the mound with 30+ fantasy points and double-digit K’s in two of his last three starts. The Indians ace is a slate leading -320 home favorite and the White Sox have only a 3 IRT which makes Clevinger a cash game SP1 building block and the arm to pay up for in GPP’s.

While locking in the elite SP1 has been the recipe in GPP’s recently, the most common pairing is to roll with a cheap(er) SP2 to make stacking bats an easier and higher upside build. However, with September call-ups now in play and a player pool littered with value hitters, could we be contrarian by paying up for BOTH arms here tonight?

While I think most will look to pay up for Clevinger or save a bit with Jack Flaherty ($20.6K) against the Giants, I believe we have the opportunity to get one of the best pitchers at low ownership here tonight with Jacob deGrom ($21.6K). 

Yesterday, Noah Syndergaard was less than 1% owned against the same Nationals squad as most who paid up looked to get all the way to Gerrit Cole or drop down to the bargain SP2’s. Now, I do not expect deGOAT to be sub 1% owned on any slate but I could see a similar low-owned route here for the Mets ace as a result of the slate context and match-up.

deGrom is an understandable road underdog against Max Scherzer and the Nationals, but any time you can get an arm with a 32% K rate and 16% swinging strike rate at low ownership, I think you have to have an interest.

deGrom has pitched three times against the Nationals this year, putting up 22, 25 and 34 fantasy points with 25 K’s and only 1 ER allowed in 17 innings pitched. Every game at this point is a must-win for the Mets and deGrom is essentially a lock to give you 100+ pitches, having hit and eclipsed that mark now in 4 straight and 7 of his last 8 games.

A Clevinger/deGrom build is going to be expensive, in fact, it leaves you with less than $7K per batter for your offense but with cheap stacks and #FreeSquares galore due to September call-ups, we have multiple paths to stacking around these stud arms.