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Fantasy football 2019: week 1 – BOOM or BUST

By Jake VanZuiden

Fantasy football: BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 15: Lamar Jackson #8 reacts to Hayden Hurst #81 of the Baltimore Ravens after a play against the Green Bay Packers during the first half of a preseason game at M&T Bank Stadium on August 15, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
Fantasy football: BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 15: Lamar Jackson #8 reacts to Hayden Hurst #81 of the Baltimore Ravens after a play against the Green Bay Packers during the first half of a preseason game at M&T Bank Stadium on August 15, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /
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Fantasy football: MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 18: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks carries the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the preseason game at U.S. Bank Stadium on August 18, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings defeated the Seahawks 25-19. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Fantasy football running back

BOOM:

Chris Carson, SEA vs. CIN

Down the stretch last season, Chris Carson was as good as one could ask for, finishing as the overall fantasy football RB5 from Week 11 on. Carson, who averaged 18 FPPG over that stretch, also finished the year with 247 carries (seventh-most in the NFL) for over 1,150 yards.

After head coach Pete Carroll stated Carson will once again be the clear lead-dog in the Seahawk’s backfield, he’s got a chance to build on what was already an impressive 2018.

What better way to come firing out of the gates than against the Cincinnati Bengals? The Bengals, who are figured to have a bottom-feeding defense once again this year, were slaughtered by opposing running backs a season ago, allowing over 27 FPPG to the position (second-most in the league).

Carson is likely licking his chops as he comes into this one and should be viewed as one of the top RBs this week.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. IND

Melvin Gordon‘s holdout has paved the way to increased volume for the ultra-efficient pass-catching back Austin Ekeler. While he was a serviceable flex option throughout most of 2018, Ekeler could push for back-end RB1 status this season in PPR formats while Gordon’s on the shelf.

While running-mate Justin Jackson will also see carries, Ekeler should remain the primary beneficiary. In Weeks 13 and 14 last season when Gordon was out, the Chargers allotted Ekeler 13 and 15 carries, showing their trust in his ability to operate as their no. 1 guy.

His Week 1 opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, had a tough time limiting pass-catching RBs a season ago, allowing the position 6.9 receptions (second-most in the league) for 52.1 yards per game (seventh-most).

L.A. should have no problem getting the 24-year-old going through the air while getting him his touches on the ground as well, making him a strong starting option.

BUST:

Joe Mixon, CIN @ SEA

Just like last season, the volume should be there for Joe Mixon throughout the year as the clear workhorse in Cincinnati. However, there are several variables working against the AFC’s leading rusher to begin the year.

Two of the team’s offensive lineman from a season ago (guards Clint Boling and Christian Westerman) are now retired, their projected starting left tackle is likely done for the year, and start wide-out A.J. Green will also be sidelined for the start of the regular season, hurting the offense’s efficiency as a whole.

This is an offense that already struggled last year, managing just 310.8 yards per game (27th in the league).

Mixon will get a tough road match-up in Week 1 against the reconstructed Seattle Seahawks defense. This is now arguably a top-10 unit thanks to the off-season additions of Jadeveon Clowney, Ezekiel Ansah, and L.J. Collier to bolster their front-seven.

Even without their new toys in 2018, Seattle gave up just 85.3 rushing yards per game (10th-fewest in the NFL). If you have Mixon you’re starting him, as he would’ve costed you a second-round pick, but be sure to temper your expectations out of the gates.

Kenyan Drake, MIA vs. BAL

Coming into the season, Kenyan Drake‘s fantasy outlook remains bleak despite outperforming teammate Kalen Ballage this preseason. Even after finishing last season as the overall fantasy football RB14 last season, Drake still has plenty of questions surrounding his 2019 outlook.

The Dolphins, on paper, look like the worst team in the league, which won’t do Drake any favors. In addition, he’ll be running behind a shaky offensive that took a severe blow when the team traded starting LT Laremy Tunsil last weekend.

To make matters worse, Miami gets a date with the Baltimore Ravens to open the season, a team that surrendered just 15.9 FPPG to the running back spot last year (second-fewest in the league). The Ravens also gave up the third-fewest receiving yards per game (27.9) out of the backfield.

By all accounts, Baltimore should remain one of the NFL’s strongest defenses against the run this year, making Drake an easy Week 1 fade.

Sleeper:

Nyheim Hines, IND @ LAC

While Andrew Luck’s retirement may hurt the value of Marlon Mack, it appears that it should have the exact opposite effect on scat-back Nyheim Hines, who saw nearly 150 more snaps that Mack in 2018 when his team was losing.

The Chargers are a good team, and in a game where the Colts may be playing from behind, a positive game-script for Hines should be in the forecast. In 2018, L.A. allowed 60.8 receiving yards per game to RB’s (second-most in the NFL), making Hines a sneaky fantasy football flex play.

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