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Fantasy football 2019: week 1 – BOOM or BUST

By Jake VanZuiden

Fantasy football: BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 15: Lamar Jackson #8 reacts to Hayden Hurst #81 of the Baltimore Ravens after a play against the Green Bay Packers during the first half of a preseason game at M&T Bank Stadium on August 15, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
Fantasy football: BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 15: Lamar Jackson #8 reacts to Hayden Hurst #81 of the Baltimore Ravens after a play against the Green Bay Packers during the first half of a preseason game at M&T Bank Stadium on August 15, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /
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Fantasy Football - Vikings WR Stefon Diggs
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 18: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Minnesota Vikings plays catch with fans before the preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks at U.S. Bank Stadium on August 18, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings defeated the Seahawks 25-19. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Fantasy football wide receiver

BOOM:

Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. ATL

Over the last few years, the only things that’s been able to hold Stefon Diggs back is his health. Finishing last season as fantasy’s WR10 and seeing nearly 150 targets in the passing game, some wonder whether or not he’ll take a step back this season as Minnesota plans to run the ball more often.

Although he’s still going to play second-fiddle to Vikings’ no. 1 wide-out Adam Thielen, there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around in Week 1.

To his benefit, Diggs gets to go against the porous Atlanta Falcons defense to begin the year, a team that was gashed by opposing WRs in 2018, allowing over 32 fantasy points and 164.7 yards per game to the position (both seventh-most in the league).

Minnesota’s may also have a hard time suppressing the Falcons’ fourth-best passing-attack from last season, giving this game the looks of a shootout. In what should be a high-scoring affair, lock Diggs in as one of the best options at his position this week.

Allen Robinson, CHI vs. GB

Allen Robinson may have fallen short of expectations in his first season with the Chicago Bears, but he was beginning to show signs of his formerly-elite form down the stretch of 2018.

Coming into Year 2 in Matt Nagy‘s offense and having another full off-season to build chemistry with his QB Mitchell Trubisky, Robinson should take a step forward this season. In his most recent game in the playoffs against the Eagles, he looked as if he was beginning to turn the corner, hanging a 10-143-1 line in a heartbreaking loss.

To kickoff the 2019 season, he’ll face the division-rival Packers on Thursday night. Green Bay was one of the worst in the NFL last season at containing enemy wide-outs, allowing them to drop an average of 33.1 fantasy points per week (fourth-most in the league). Look for Robinson to pick up right where he left off against the Eagles, cementing himself as a strong fantasy football WR2 this week.

BUST:

Calvin Ridley, ATL @ MIN

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell that Calvin Ridley is due for regression in 2018. Despite being Atlanta’s no. 3 option behind All-Pro WR Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu, Ridley went on to post remarkably-efficient numbers, catching 10 touchdown passes (tied for 6th-most) on just 93 targets.

However, the underlying data points toward Ridley taking a step back this year, as 40 percent of all his fantasy points were scored in Weeks 2-4. And believe it or not, his red-zone share checked-in at just 12.2 percent, 76th among all WRs. In his second season, his otherworldly efficiency is bound to plummet.

His downfall begins Week 1, as he’s set to go up against the pesky Minnesota Vikings secondary. We saw the Vikings lock-down opposing receivers a season ago, allowing just 22.2 FPPG to WRs (second-fewest in the NFL). Minnesota also ranked no. 1 in the league with only 13 passing touchdowns surrendered all season. Ridley is best off being left on your bench during opening week.

Robby Anderson, NYJ vs. BUF

A popular breakout candidate for many over the summer, Robby Anderson finished the 2018 fantasy season on a high-note, ending the year as fantasy’s WR7 from Weeks 14-17 (averaged 18.6 FPPG over that span).

However, Anderson popped-up on the injury report last week with a calf injury that could keep his expectations in-check to start the season. As of now, the Temple alum is trending towards playing, but owners may want to think again before firing him up in their lineups.

Assuming he’ll be able to suit up, Anderson will match up against an extremely-underrated Bills defense, a unit that was fourth-best in the league at limiting production from WRs in 2018.

Buffalo allowed just 23.1 FPPG to wide-outs, placing top-six in receiving YPG, receptions per game, and touchdowns allowed to the position. This is sneaky-tough match-up for Anderson, who at less than 100 percent, isn’t in an ideal spot Sunday.

Sleeper:

Courtland Sutton, DEN @ OAK

A player who could overtake Emmanuel Sanders as his team’s no. 1 receiver this season, Courtland Sutton is an intriguing flex play in Week 1. In the preseason, he looked to have built a strong rapport with new QB Joe Flacco, something that should translate into the regular season.

He’ll draw the Oakland Raiders for his first match-up of the year against the Raiders, a team that allowed the third-most reception TDs per game to wide receivers in 2018. Perhaps the big-bodied Sutton can sneak into the end-zone and give owners a nice surprise.

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