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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1

By Joe Metz

SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 16: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks leaps over Tarvarius Moore #33 of the San Francisco 49ers during the game at Levi's Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 16: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks leaps over Tarvarius Moore #33 of the San Francisco 49ers during the game at Levi's Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images) /
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BUFFALO, NY – SEPTEMBER 16: Austin Ekeler #30 of the Los Angeles Chargers gets away from Tremaine Edmunds #49 of the Buffalo Bills during NFL game action at New Era Field on September 16, 2018 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers

Indianapolis Colts

This write-up took a drastic turn during the third week of the preseason, as Andrew Luck abruptly announced his retirement from football. This should be an expected downgrade to just about every piece of the offense. While Jacoby Brissett is arguably the best backup in the league, a Week 1 date with a stout Chargers secondary has me looking elsewhere for QB value.

The same can be said about his receiving core in T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle and Nyheim Hines. I’d rather take a wait-and-see approach as to how this offense will shake out before I try and pick my weapons.

Marlon Mack was a touchdown machine last season and should see extra usage without Luck, but I expect a ton of negative game script here and the Chargers still ranked 10th in rush DVOA last season. This all adds up to make the Colts a full-fade for me to kick off the season.

Cash Plays: none

GPP Plays: none

Los Angeles Chargers

The ageless Phillip Rivers could see a bit more volume (yes, he’ll throw even more) this season with the holdout of Melvin Gordon and gets an exploitable Colts secondary (20th in pass DVOA last season) to kick things off. His WR1, Keenan Allen, is expected to suit up for week 1, but his ankle injury has caused enough concern where he probably isn’t worth taking a shot on this week.

This makes both Mike Williams and Hunter Henry much more appealing. The coaching staff has been vocal about forecasting a huge role for Williams in the offense this season and if he can build on his insane touchdown pace last season, he could have some monster games. In the case that Allen is either limited/used as a decoy, or inactive, he could see a massive spike in volume as well. Henry is finally going to see some time on the field now that he’s healthy and the Colts ranked 29th in DVOA against TEs last season, making him a viable mid-tier option at the position.

Austin Ekeler is the final piece to pin-point here. Without Melvin Gordon, Ekeler should go from a change-of-pace role to almost an every-down back. The Colts were 4th in DVOA against the rush last season but struggled particularly against pass-catching backs (25th in DVOA against passes to RB). They allowed 54.3 receiving yards per game to running backs last season and he’s dirt-cheap ($5,500) on DraftKings, making him a viable cash-game play.

Cash Plays: Henry, Ekeler, LAC D/ST

GPP Plays: Williams, Rivers