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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1

By Joe Metz

SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 16: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks leaps over Tarvarius Moore #33 of the San Francisco 49ers during the game at Levi's Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 16: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks leaps over Tarvarius Moore #33 of the San Francisco 49ers during the game at Levi's Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images) /
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ARLINGTON, TEXAS – JANUARY 05: Jeff Heath #38, Demarcus Lawrence #90, and Leighton Vander Esch #55 of the Dallas Cowboys combine to stop Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks in the third quarter during the Wild Card Round at AT&T Stadium on January 05, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – JANUARY 05: Jeff Heath #38, Demarcus Lawrence #90, and Leighton Vander Esch #55 of the Dallas Cowboys combine to stop Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks in the third quarter during the Wild Card Round at AT&T Stadium on January 05, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are never a team you look to target heavily in DFS contests, but the fact that A.J. Green has yet to shed a walking boot and will be inactive only reinforces that idea here.

That will vault Tyler Boyd into not only the WR1 role for Andy Dalton, but a huge uptick in volume. Against WR1s last season, the Seahawks were 25th in DVOA, allowing. shade under 80 receiving yards per game. He’s cheap across the industry and could carry a higher floor, making him a fine cash game play in a game that I expect the Bengals to be playing from behind and airing it out.

While the Seahawks have had some holes recently in the secondary, it’s hard to say the same about their front seven and thus, endorse Joe Mixon. Yes, the insertion of head coach Zac Taylor gives a ton of reason for optimism, but against a strong front 7 that just added Jadeveon Clowney, I’ll take a pass in cash games. Mixon could, however, have some involvement in the passing game given the negative game-script, making him a fine GPP play with minimal ownership.

Tyler Eifert should have his hands full in the middle of the field this week, so I will be looking elsewhere for a mid-range tight end.

Cash Plays: Boyd

GPP Plays: Mixon

Seattle Seahawks

Under-priced and under-appreciated are the two adjectives I will use to describe the Seahawks in NFL DFS week 1, but I’m totally okay with hoping for low ownership here.

The three main cogs of this team, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson all come in at roughly $500 too cheap on DraftKings and they should be an extremely effective stack against a porous defense.

Carson was a bell-cow towards the end of 2018 and the murmurs of an uptick in 3rd-down involvement leave me with little worry regarding Rashaad Penny. The Bengals ranked 26th in rush DVOA last season and allowed 137.8 rushing yards per game. Carson is a core piece for me across all sites this week with his expected volume and upside here.

Speaking of volume, with D.K. Metcalf on the mend from surgery, Tyler Lockett could be in for a heap of targets against a secondary that ranked in the bottom third in pass DVOA last season and has a ton of touchdown upside. Rounding out a stack with Russell Wilson would be a wise choice, especially in GPPs as the overall Bengals defense was 28th in DVOA last season.

Cash Plays: Carson, Lockett, Seahawks D/ST

GPP Plays: Wilson