NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1
By Joe Metz
NFL DFS: Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a team that could air out the ball less this season under a new run-heavy scheme but have a matchup with a porous secondary to kick-off 2019. One receiver that I absolutely want exposure to this week is Kenny Golladay. Not only is cornerback Patrick Peterson suspended to start the season, but the Cardinals were also 23rd in DVOA against WR2s last season. I expect their second-best corner to bump up and shadow Golladay as the WR1 with Peterson out, making this matchup more exploitable than usual.
Marvin Jones Jr. is another wide receiver I plan to have tournament exposure to. He’s going under the radar with Golladay’s emergence, but before his injury last season, Jones was on pace to be a WR2 on a season-long basis. He’s a huge red-zone threat and trusted target for Stafford. In a game with an over/under of 47.0, a home-run threat like Jones could be a huge beneficiary of constant offense.
The final piece of a Detroit attack is sophomore running back Kerryon Johnson. With a new run-heavy offense in effect, we could see 15-20 touches against a defense that allowed more rushing yards per game than any team in the league (154.9), making him viable in all formats.
Cash Plays: Golladay, Johnson
GPP Plays: Jones Jr.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray will make his awaited NFL debut against a team that ranked 31st in pass DVOA last season, giving him a ton of upside to kick the season off. In addition to the passing upside, he has the ability to create on the ground as well and comes in under $6,000 on DraftKings. Because of the hype around the rookie and the cake matchup, he may carry a bit of ownership, but it’s a play I definitely have interest in.
Stemming off of Murray, it’s hard to see a scenario in which Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t see a heap of targets. While he’ll likely match up with Darius Slay, he should be leaned on heavily by the rookie quarterback and as a team, the Lions still ranked dead last in DVOA against WR1s last season. If Slay is to rattle Fitz a bit, Christian Kirk may be an indirect beneficiary. You can target just about any wide receiver against the Lions, but these are the two I’d trust most on Arizona.
David Johnson is the other catalyst on the Cardinals and with Kliff Kingsbury wanting to run 70+ offensive plays per game, he’s sure to be a major factor. Detroit was slightly better against the run than anything else last season, ranking 13th in rush DVOA, but they still allowed over 110 rushing yards per game. He has virtually no competition for touches and I would expect a ton of dump-off passes from the rookie QB, raising his floor in PPR-formats (DraftKings). He’s relatively underpriced for the ceiling he provides here.
Cash Plays: Murray (DK), Johnson (DK), Kirk (DK)
GPP Plays: Murray (FD), Johnson (FD), Fitzgerald, Kirk (FD)