NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1

NFL DFS: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

New York Giants

The New York Giants come into the game rather short-handed, missing Golden Tate (suspension) and Corey Coleman (IR) while losing Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason, leaving Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram in line for a massive amount of targets. With the depth and value that you can find at the receiver position, I don’t see a need for Shepard, especially since he’s been nursing an injury of his own throughout the offseason.

Engram, on the other hand, comes in as a tremendous value in the mid-tier tight end range. The Cowboys ranked 16th in overall pass DVOA last season and fell to 19th against tight ends in particular. On top of that, they allowed the 6th most receptions to tight ends last season. He’s viable in all formats and is one of the safest options at the position.

Saquon Barkley needs little rationale to tout as a viable play, as he could see upwards of 30 touches on a weekly basis. The Cowboys allowed 10 rushing touchdowns last season (middle of the pack) and ranked 5th in rush DVOA, but only 26th in DVOA against receptions out of the backfield. Due to Barkley’s immense versatility, he’s always a viable cash play and this is a manageable matchup.

Cash Plays: Engram, Barkley

GPP Plays: none

Dallas Cowboys

This section of the breakdown is contingent on one thing and one thing only; whether or not Ezekiel Elliott ends his holdout. At the time of writing this (10:15pm CST on Tuesday, Sept. 3rd), my safe assumption is that he will. If that’s the case, he immediately becomes an elite play, as the Giants surrendered the 5th most rushing touchdowns in 2018 (15) and tied for the 2nd most receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs (5). They rank 20th in overall rush DVOA and I expect this game to be rather one-sided in favor of Dallas whether Zeke plays or not, creating a ton of positive game script for a running back.

If Elliott doesn’t get his contract squared away, you can copy and paste what I said above and apply it to Tony Pollard. He’s not the generational talent that Zeke has proven to be, but behind one of the best offensive lines in the league and priced at a steep discount in a smash spot, I would expect him to be extremely popular if those stars align.

When it comes to the aerial attack, the Giants were 22nd in pass DVOA, 26th against WR1s, 7th against WR2s and 28th against all other receivers. This puts Amari Cooper firmly in play in GPPs given his chemistry and success with Dak Prescott since the acquisition last season. Cooper is also a massive big-play threat and checks the boxes for an ideal GPP play.

I’m not super high on Michael Gallup given the success NYG has shown against WR2s, but he should see a decent amount of volume from Prescott and he’s cheap across the industry, but especially on DraftKings. If using a Cowboys receiver in a tournament, it would only make sense to pair them with Prescott, as the Giants allowed an average of 18.4 FanDuel points to quarterbacks and 19.1 DraftKings points per game last season.

Cash Plays: Elliott (if active), Pollard (if Elliott is OUT)

GPP Plays: Prescott, Cooper, Gallup (DK)