NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1
By Joe Metz
NFL DFS: San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers
While Jimmy Garoppolo looked rather rusty throughout preseason (expectedly so), he’s got a cake matchup to kick off his 2019 campaign. The Bucs allowed the 3rd most passing touchdowns in the league last season (33), the 5th most passing yards (4,378), the 3rd most fantasy points per game (20.9) and ranked 30th in overall pass DVOA. He’s not safe enough for cash given the fact that he missed all of last season and should still show signs of rust, but I’m all aboard in tournaments.
Stemming off of the leaky pass defense of the Bucs, George Kittle might be the top overall tight end when you factor in the matchup, price and skill set. Tampa Bay ranked 28th in pass DVOA against the tight end last season and Kittle dominated the 49ers target market, holding a 28.05% target share, beating out all wide receivers by at least 15%.
Dante Pettis has had a rough camp and was even considered to be on the roster bubble by the coaching staff, but the latest unofficial depth charts have him listed as the WR1. If that holds true, you could make a case for him in GPPs seeing that the Bucs ranked 29th in DVOA against WR1s last season and allowed 72.8 yards per game. Marquise Goodwin is always a boom-or-bust candidate and his stock should risk with Garoppolo under center, but he’s too risky to consider in cash. Due to his dirt-cheap tag on DraftKings, I won’t argue if you take a shot in a large-field GPP there, but I wouldn’t go any further.
The Bucs’ rush defense is just as bad as their pass defense, as they rank 31st in rush DVOA. The issue here is that it remains to be seen how the timeshare between Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida will shake out. While they’re presented with a mouth-watering matchup, there are too many other good running backs to target to consider them this week.
Cash Plays: Kittle
GPP Plays: Garoppolo, Pettis, Goodwin (DK)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Much like the Bucs’ own defense, the 49ers defense is one that I will look to attack until they give me a reason not to. They ranked 27th in pass DVOA, making Jameis Winston an intriguing tournament option in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Pairing him with someone like Mike Evans or Chris Godwin seems wise. The 49ers allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers in the league last season (27) and the 4th most overall fantasy points to the position. That bodes extremely well for both players, as they both saw target shares over 15% in the red zone last season. On top of that, The 49ers rank 26th in DVOA against WR2s, bolstering the stock of Godwin this week, making him a bit more cash viable.
O.J. Howard is another interesting mid-tier option at the tight end position, as he’s been an elite asset when on the field. The 49ers were 21st in pass DVOA against tight ends last season but allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points per game to the position. He has a ton of upside, making him viable in GPPs, but I would lean towards someone like Kittle in cash games.
The Tampa Bay backfield is an utter disaster right now and none of Ronald Jones, Peyton Barber or Dare Ogunbowale should be in consideration this week.
Cash Plays: Godwin
GPP Plays: Winston, Evans, Howard