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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1

By Joe Metz

SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 16: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks leaps over Tarvarius Moore #33 of the San Francisco 49ers during the game at Levi's Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 16: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks leaps over Tarvarius Moore #33 of the San Francisco 49ers during the game at Levi's Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images) /
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PITTSBURGH, PA – AUGUST 25: Pittsburgh Steelers Running Back James Conner (30) runs onto the field during the preseason NFL game between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers on August 25, 2018 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – AUGUST 25: Pittsburgh Steelers Running Back James Conner (30) runs onto the field during the preseason NFL game between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers on August 25, 2018 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers

While this game isn’t on the main slate, you can target it during the Thurs-Mon slate, Primetime slate or a showdown slate, as there is a heap of viable plays on both sides of the game.

James Conner came in last season and made Le’Veon Bell an afterthought in the minds of Steelers fans and effectively took over as the bell cow back. The Patriots had a stout rushing defense last season, allowing the 2nd fewest rushing touchdowns (6), but ranked 19th in overall rush DVOA. He could flirt with 20 touches here and that’s certainly something I want exposure to on a smaller slate.

Looking towards the passing game, Ben Roethlisberger will have a new favorite target this season in JuJu Smith-Schuster after the departure of Antonio Brown. With that said, JuJu led the team in overall target share (24.57%) and red-zone target share (30.21%) last season, showing that he’s fully capable of being a WR1. The Patriots were a middling team against receivers last season, ranking 16th in DVOA against WR1s, but the target share should be massive, making him a viable play in all formats.

Vance McDonald may be the sleeper to eat into the vacated 165 targets that Brown left behind last season and the Patriots tied for the 4th most touchdowns allowed to the tight end position last season (8).

If you want to get cute and differentiate your lineup in a GPP, Donte Moncrief and James Washington should both see significant run in 3-wide-receiver sets and as mentioned previously, there are 165 targets that Brown leaves on the table from 2018. They’re both dirt cheap and while Moncrief may have a higher floor, you could argue their upside is extremely similar.

Cash Plays: Conner, Smith-Schuster, McDonald

GPP Plays: Roethlisberger, Moncrief

New England Patriots

The ageless Tom Brady heads into 2019 without his trusted tight end but returns the likes of Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon in his receiving core. Edelman was 2nd on the team in targets last season (112) and should absorb a good amount of Gronk’s 76 targets from last season. The Steelers ranked 26th in DVOA against the short pass last season, which makes me think he could have a monster game out of the slot.

Gordon is much more volatile, but he averaged over 15 yards per reception in his brief stint in 2018, which shows just how much big-play upside he possesses. The Steelers were bottom 5 in the league in DVOA against WR2s last season, making him an intriguing GPP flier.

While I like the two receivers in the passing game, I’ll take a pass (no pun intended) on Brady, as he hasn’t shown the fantasy floor that we want out of our starting quarterback over the last season.

The backfield of Sony Michel and James White should be where a ton of the action should be. While the Steelers ranked 8th in rush DVOA, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Michel doesn’t make a killing in the red-zone. He scored 6 touchdowns over his final 3 playoff games last season and garnered 47.13% of the red-zone carries last season for the Patriots (26% higher than White). White, on the other hand, should be able to dice up the Steelers in the passing game as they ranked 26th in DVOA against short passes as mentioned above and White led the team in target share last season (21.58%).

Cash Plays: Edelman, Michel, White (DK)

GPP Plays: Gordon, White (FD)