NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1
By Joe Metz
NFL DFS: Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans
The most exciting game of the week happens to be on Monday night – perfect. There could be a ton of points in this game and it’s one where I’d want to load up on the Texans offense, starting with DeShaun Watson. The Saints allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season while also allowing the most rushing touchdowns to the position (5). This caters right into the strengths of Watson, as he has his plethora of receivers in DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Keke Coutee and Kenny Stills, while also having the wheels to make an impact on the ground.
If playing Watson, it only makes sense to pair him with a receiver and there’s nobody better than Hopkins. The Saints allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, the 6th most touchdowns (20) and the most receiving yards (3,345). They ranked 22nd in pass DVOA and 30th against WR1s in particular, making Hopkins an elite play.
The Saints porous secondary makes Fuller, Coutee and Stills all viable as well, but the ambiguity surround the delegation of targets is what is preventing me from locking them into a cash lineup. Fuller has arguably the most upside of the group, scoring 11 touchdowns in his last 11 games with Watson.
Duke Johnson Jr. is another interesting piece here with the season-ending injury to Lamar Miller. The Saints ranked 29th in pass DVOA to the running back position, which is where Johnson makes his killing, making him a viable low-owned play in all formats.
Cash Plays: Watson, Hopkins, Johnson
GPP Plays: Fuller, Stills
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are always a team to target regarding stacking in DFS and this season should be no different. The departure of Mark Ingram should only increase the already heavy workload of Alvin Kamara and against a Texans front-7 that just lost Jadeveon Clowney, he seems like a strong play even though they were 1st overall in rush DVOA last season. His involvement in the passing game (20.94% target share) is really what keeps him in the elite tier, and the lack of passing involvement for Latavius Murray is what is completely keeping him out of consideration this week.
Where Houston struggled, however, was the passing game as they ranked 19th in pass DVOA. Michael Thomas should continue to eat up targets and pile onto his 30.75% target share from last season against a defense that was 31st in pass DVOA against WR1s.
Beyond the two-headed monster of Thomas and Kamara, it’s hard to fully endorse the likes of Jared Cook, Ted Ginn, and Tre’Quan Smith because of the uncertainty surrounding their involvement. If I had to choose, Cook would be my preferred target here given his red-zone presence and the fact that Houston ranked 23rd in DVOA against the tight end position.
Drew Brees seems like an unnecessary target when you have a quarterback on the opposite team that comes with a much higher floor and ceiling combo, regardless of the fact that Brees is historically much better at home.
Cash Plays: Kamara, Thomas, Cook (best TE on the primetime slate by default)
GPP Plays: none