NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1
By Joe Metz
NFL DFS: Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are one of the most boring teams in the NFL to target from a fantasy perspective. Joe Flacco is stepping in and taking the reins for this “offense”, but doesn’t have a ton to work with. While the Raiders ranked dead last in the league in pass DVOA, I have a hard time endorsing Flacco in anything other than the showdown slate.
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Emmanuel Sanders has made an other-worldly recovery from his torn Achilles and whether or not he’ll be a true full-go this week remains to be seen. If, however, he is, he makes for a viable target in the showdown slate given how bad this Oakland defense is and how many targets he could receive.
Whether or not Sanders plays at full-speed won’t deter me from having an interest in the upside of Courtland Sutton this week. His target share was only 2% less than Sanders last season on 17 fewer targets, showing that if he gets a bump in volume, he should take over the WR1 role. There are also 57 vacated targets from Demaryius Thomas that Sutton should see a massive chunk of, making him a rather safe play.
Phillip Lindsay was the most electric player on the team last season and faces an Oakland front-7 that ranked 22nd in rush DVOA and 20th in DVOA against passes to running backs, which caters to the fact that Lindsay was able to notch 51 targets last season.
While Royce Freeman could steal some of the backfield work now that he is healthy, I have a hard time trusting him in a showdown lineup for Week 1, even if it’s just to differentiate my roster. The same can be said for tight end Noah Fant. While the excitement around him is immense, I’d rather take a wait-and-see approach here.
Cash Plays: Lindsay, Sutton
GPP Plays: Sanders
Oakland Raiders
Whether you watched this season of Hard Knocks or not, it was impossible to avoid the Raiders in the news. The GOOD news, however, is that Antonio Brown is expected to be a full go for week 1. While helmet gate has dinged his stock from a season-long perspective, this is still a player that has regularly finished as a top-5 wide receiver year in and year out.
The Broncos did rank 4th in pass DVOA last season, but I see no way Brown doesn’t accumulate 10-15 targets from Derek Carr and that’s not something I would want to pass up on a primetime or a showdown slate. With that said, I don’t see a need to roster Derek Carr this week until I see what he can do with the new-look offense.
The other wide receiver to look at here is Tyrell Williams. While Denver ranked 11th in DVOA against WR1s last season, they slipped to 17th against WR2s and I don’t expect many to be on Williams. He’s averaged over 15 yards per reception in each of his last 3 seasons, carrying a heap of GPP-upside for a bit of a discount.
Rookie running back Josh Jacobs should be in line for a hefty workload out of the gate, as Oakland has been adamant that they drafted him to be a workhorse. Denver allowed the 6th most rushing yards in the league last season and ranked 16th in rush DVOA compared to 4th in pass DVOA, showing that the ground is where they’re more vulnerable.
Cash Plays: Brown, Jacobs
GPP Plays: Williams
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