Fansided

NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 1

By Joe Metz

SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 16: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks leaps over Tarvarius Moore #33 of the San Francisco 49ers during the game at Levi's Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 16: Chris Carson #32 of the Seattle Seahawks leaps over Tarvarius Moore #33 of the San Francisco 49ers during the game at Levi's Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 26-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images) /
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Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) celebrated his first quarter 13-yard touchdown run at U.S. Bank Stadium Sunday December 16, 2018 in Minneapolis, MN.] The Minnesota Vikings hosted the Miami Dolphins at U.S. Bank Stadium. Jerry Holt • Jerry.holt@startribune.com(Photo By Jerry Holt/Star Tribune via Getty Images)
Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) celebrated his first quarter 13-yard touchdown run at U.S. Bank Stadium Sunday December 16, 2018 in Minneapolis, MN.] The Minnesota Vikings hosted the Miami Dolphins at U.S. Bank Stadium. Jerry Holt • Jerry.holt@startribune.com(Photo By Jerry Holt/Star Tribune via Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons remain one of the best offenses in the league, but they’ll be tough to trust this week against a stout Minnesota defense. Matt Ryan finished as a top-5 fantasy quarterback in 2018 and has a heap of weapons at his disposal once again. Even with that said, given the fact that Minnesota is top-5 in pass DVOA and gave up the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks has me looking elsewhere.

Julio Jones is about as matchup-proof as they come but should see the coverage of Xavier Rhodes, making life a bit more difficult. If he and Ryan can continue the touchdown pace they had towards the end of last season, he should still be able to come out with an effective outing.

Where Minnesota struggled, however, is in the middle of the field. They ranked 30th in pass DVOA against the tight end position, putting Austin Hooper in a good spot to succeed as an interesting mid-tier option.

With Tevin Coleman gone, we should see a ton of Devonta Freeman this season barring injury, but with a matchup against the Vikings, there’s no reason to reach here with so many other viable running backs on the slate.

Cash Plays: Hooper

GPP Plays: Jones

Minnesota Vikings

While I’m bullish on the Falcons, I’m much more attracted to the Vikings in this matchup. Dalvin Cook is finally healthy and has looked like an absolute beast in his limited preseason work. The Falcons ranked 30th in rush DVOA last season and allowed over 120 rushing yards per game. In a run-heavy scheme at a bit of a discount, I want all the Dalvin Cook that I can get.

The rest of the Vikings are a bit harder to endorse given the number of great plays on the slate. Kirk Cousins isn’t ever really on my radar in cash games and doesn’t have enough upside for GPPs compared to the other quarterbacks that I have my eyes on.

Adam Thielen cooled off towards the back-end of the season, but he’s as good a bet as anyone to record a 15-150-2 stat line. He’s rather affordable across the industry, especially on DraftKings given the value you can find at running back, so he’s someone that I wouldn’t be afraid to take a shot on. His partner in crime, Stefon Diggs, is someone I have a bit less interest in. While he’s more of the home-run play, Atlanta ranked 11th in DVOA against WR2s last season as opposed to 27th against WR1s.

Cash Plays: Cook, Thielen (DK)

GPP Plays: Diggs