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MLB DFS picks and pivots: September 5

By Brian Tulloch

BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 4: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox rounds third base after hitting a solo home run during the first inning of a game against the Minnesota Twins on September 4, 2019 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 4: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox rounds third base after hitting a solo home run during the first inning of a game against the Minnesota Twins on September 4, 2019 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA – JULY 18: Stephen Strasburg #37 of the Washington Nationals looks on from the dugout during the game against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on July 18, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – JULY 18: Stephen Strasburg #37 of the Washington Nationals looks on from the dugout during the game against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on July 18, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Pitching Breakdown

We have a seven-game MLB DFS slate here on Thursday Night and with so much focus on the first game of the NFL season (which we have broken down here for your DFS pleasure), it will be interesting to see how many remain steadfast in their commitment to playing MLB.

At first glance, the pitching on this slate feels over-priced at the top considering that Stephen Strasburg (at Atlanta) and Jose Quintana (at Milwaukee) get tough in division match-ups with massive playoff implications. Instead this is shaping up to be a slate where I think you pay down for both arms and load up on bats as we have viable mid-range and punt options that I believe have solid upside here this evening.

Austin Pruitt ($13.5K) was expected to be used out of the bullpen again this week but after a strong start against the Indians the last time out, he will get the call as a traditional starter at home against the Blue Jays.

Pruitt went 5.1 innings against Cleveland, throwing 77 pitches and striking out 6 on his way to a 21 fantasy point shutout against the Indians. Tonight, Pruitt steps to the mound as one of the largest Vegas favorites (-220) against a Blue Jays team with one of the lowest IRT on the slate at only 3.6.

The Jays projected line-up has a 24.4% K rate against RHP this season and over the last 30 days, their 25.7% K rate ranks 4th in all of baseball behind only the Tigers, Marlins and Rangers – the teams we routinely pick on in MLB DFS.

Speaking of the Rangers, John Means ($11.7K) gets a home start against a Texas squad that has a projected lineup K rate of 25.2% and after back to back 7 inning, 20+ fantasy point starts, Means feels far too cheap considering.

In his last two outings against the Royals and Rays, Means has gone 7 innings in both starts, surrendering only 3 ER total, striking out 11 while not walking a single batter on his way to 20.75 and 28.75 fantasy points.

Pruitt and Means as a duo are dirt cheap, allowing you over $9.3K per batter for your hitters and get match-ups against two of the top four most strikeout prone offenses in baseball the last month. With demonstrated 20+ fantasy point upside in their recent starts, there is a path here for these bargain arms to keep pace with the much higher-priced hurlers and give us all the offense that those Strasburg/Quintana builds cannot afford.