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Draftkings NFL GPP pivots: Week 1

By Dan Palyo

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 09: Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons lines up for a play in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 09, 2018 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 09: Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons lines up for a play in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 09, 2018 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 23: Darius Slay #23 of the Detroit Lions walks around in warms up before an NFL Pre-season game against the Buffalo Bills at Ford Field on August 23, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Buffalo defeated Detroit 24-20. (Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 23: Darius Slay #23 of the Detroit Lions walks around in warms up before an NFL Pre-season game against the Buffalo Bills at Ford Field on August 23, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Buffalo defeated Detroit 24-20. (Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images) /

Draftkings NFL GPP pivots: Defense

Chalk: Baltimore, Philadelphia

Pivots: Seattle, Detroit

I like both Baltimore and Philly on defense this week, but both teams are pretty pricey and paying for defenses in DFS is not usually an optimal strategy. Sure, an elite defense can always turn in a big day with turnovers, but oftentimes we see defenses priced up only based on matchups and Vegas totals. A defense that plays well and only allows 10 points, but doesn’t create turnovers is not worth paying for in DFS. I am not saying don’t play the Ravens or Eagles, but I am saying there always going to be cheaper defenses with upside.

Seattle is a defense that I like a good bit. They are 3.1k on Draftkings and if their offense plays as well against the Cincinnatti defense as we expect, then they should be in a positive game script for sacks and interceptions. They are tied with Philly for the biggest favorites this week and at home, where they have historically been very tough.

Detroit is my sneaky defense this week and as I alluded to earlier, I am not sold at all on Kyler Murray being a good NFL quarterback yet. With Murray being chalky, we can use Detroit against him and leverage all of that ownership with the hope that he turns the ball over with fumbles or interceptions. This Detroit defense had 3 defensive touchdowns last year and finished with 43 sacks, good for 14th in the league.