MLB DFS picks and pivots 9/6: First round Plut-KO

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 20: Steven Matz #32 of the New York Mets in action against the Cleveland Indians at Citi Field on August 20, 2019 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Indians 9-2. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS: Friday pitching breakdown

If you want to pay up for pitching on this Friday Night MLB DFS slate you will certainly have the ability to do so with four arms over $20K on FantasyDraft including Clayton Kershaw at $23K against the Giants.

While the talent is evident with Kershaw, the Dodgers have zero reasons to push their ace and it has shown consistently throughout August as he has only gone over 92 pitches once since August 1st, a span of six starts. While the match-up against the Giants is ideal, paying this much for a pitcher who is unlikely to pitch 100+ pitches becomes a tough ask and as such, I see myself living in the mid-range on this slate so I can pay for bats.

Steven Matz ($14.6K) will take the mound at home tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies and is coming into this game as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. Since July 27, a span of 7 starts, Matz has been absolutely phenomenal with a 25% K rate and putting up 18+ fantasy points now in 6 of those 7 outings.

Matz is an often over-looked arm in this loaded Mets rotation, and despite having a K rate that is in the top 30 in baseball since the end of July, has since his price rise only $600 since that start on July 27th.

The change for Matz in this most recent run has been evident not only in the results but also in his pitch types and usage. In the first 18 starts of the year, Matz relied on his fastball nearly 53% of the time at 93MPH, but in this most recent run, he has used it 10% less with an added velocity of 94 MPH on average.

Instead, Matz has doubled his slider usage, throwing it now nearly 21% and as a result this is a pitcher who has at least 6 K’s in 4 of his last 5 starts and has now given up 2 or fewer runs in 6 straight outings including against Atlanta (twice), Cleveland and Philly the last time through.

Dylan Bundy ($14.5K) sits just $100 cheaper than Matz but gets the boom or bust match-up that folks will likely be salivating over with the Rangers heading to Camden Yards. Bundy checks all the boxes tonight – a 23% K rate, 12% swinging-strike rate and a match-up against a Rangers team with just under a 25% K rate in their projected lineup.

Over the last month, the Rangers have a 26% K rate which sits behind the Tigers and Marlins for the highest mark in baseball and at this point in the year, pitchers against those three teams are going to be chalk nearly every time out.

Bundy and Matz are both solid home favorites and I think if you are looking at this sort of build, you are looking for 18-20 fantasy points from each arm and your bats to carry the day wich frankly, seems like it works more often than not in MLB DFS down the stretch.

There is some weather risk in New York with rain/wind so if you need to add another arm to your player pool, Homer Bailey ($15.9K) gets the ideal match-up with a Tigers team that has a 26% K rate against RHP and Bailey has a 28% K rate in his last 4 starts with at least 7 K’s in 3 of those 4.

The fact that Matz, Bailey and Bundy are pitching against teams with 3 of the 4 lowest IRT on this slate, I think tells you everything you need to know. Living in this mid-range for arms feels like the ideal path tonight with a significant ability to build around the high-end bats.