Antonio Brown released, signs with Patriots: Fantasy context
By Raju Byfield
Fantasy Football Winners and Losers of Antonio Brown to Patriots
Derek Carr
Derek Carr has gone from a trendy Superflex league second QB option to an end of bench QB3 option. Derek Carr takes a massive hit as both a streamer and a Superflex starter. Brown was by far the Oakland Raiders top receiver and his departure saps all of Carr’s upside. His dynasty league value is all but kaput as the Raiders may now be studying Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and even Trevor Lawrence much harder.
Although he threw a career-low 19 passing touchdowns in 2018, Derek Carr is coming of a quiet career year in several categories. He set new career marks with 4,049 passing yards, 253.1 passing yards per game and 7.3 yards per attempt. With a strong running game and Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow at wide receiver and Darren Waller at tight end, Carr should still have some blow-up games. The Raiders are projected to be playing from behind in the majority of their contests which should only serve to help boost their pass attempts per game.
Josh Jacobs
The loss of Antonio Brown is a major value suck on Josh Jacobs’ rookie year fantasy value from a game flow perspective. The Raiders will now be less competitive and a negative game script could lead to fewer carry attempts. However, the loss of Brown combined with the Raiders inability to re-sign Keelan Doss means Josh Jacobs could see a major uptick in targets.
Josh Jacobs was the Alabama Crimson Tide’s preferred receiving back and despite a committee role in college, projects as a workhorse in the NFL. He was the only running back drafted in the first round and has zero depth chart based competition. Jalen Richard is expected to see some work on passing downs, but Jacobs could be in line for over 250 touches as rookie.
A running back with the juice of Maurice-Jones Drew and the never say die attitude of Chris Carson, Jacobs has the opportunity and role to pace all rookie backs in both carries and targets. There are some concerns about his ability to hold up with a featured backs workload, especially when his running style is taken into account, but what is important to note here is that he will be afforded all of the snaps he can handle.
An analytics darling, Jacobs averaged 4.07 yards after contact per attempt and 0.26 missed tackles forced per carry. An amazing 493 of his 640 rushing yards came after contact. Jacobs no longer appears to possess RB1 upside but should settle in as an upside RB2. If Jacobs falters in week one against a tough Denver defense on Monday Night Football, test the waters and send his current owner a buy-low offer.