Antonio Brown released, signs with Patriots: Fantasy context

Fantasy Football Winners and Losers of Antonio Brown to Patriots

Tom Brady

Tom Brady’s fantasy value skyrockets with Antonio Brown on the team. The QB12 based on ADP, owners who felt fit to draft Tom Brady as their QB2 now have a steal on their hands. Brown’s addition pushes Brady to QB1 territory for most contests and could result in Brady having his best season since the Randy Moss era. Now armed with the best receiver corps in football Tom Brady sees a massive increase to his weekly floor.

Brady had just five QB1 finishes during the 2018 fantasy football season and finished outside of the top-20 four times. With Brown now in town Brady should be good for top-15 finishes on a weekly basis. There will likely be some game flow based matchups when the Patriots decide to run to either salt away the clock or to control the time of possession, but Brady should threaten QB1 numbers in the rest of them. Brady was 9th in the league in pass attempts in 2018 with 570, and could conceivably break the 600 barrier with the abundance of talent New England now has at wide receiver. Consider Brady a QB1 moving forward.

Sony Michel

This an interesting move for Sony Michel. On one hand, he is projected to see fewer carries than he was pegged for before the Brown acquisition. On the other hand, he is likely to see one of the lowest percentages of stacked boxes in the league now that the Patriots aerial attack has become a deadly force. Michel struggled to the tune of 3.0 yards per carry against stacked boxes in 2018 so this is fantastic news for his efficiency. Still an RB2 for fantasy purposes, Michel projects to crack the 1,000-yard mark in 2019 after finishing with 931 rushing yards in just 13 2018 contests. His 71.6 rushing yards per game rookie season numbers extrapolated over a full season would place him at 1,145. That would have ranked sixth in the league.

James White

As a result of the Antonio Brown acquisition, James White appears to be the biggest loser in the Patriots running back room. New England’s preferred pass-catching back, White now projects to see a decrease in his weekly target volume. White saw 123 targets and 5.4 receptions per game in 2018. Both of these numbers are destined to drop. While he will see some contests with more than seven targets there is now a very low chance he sees an average of over seven per contest.

Antonio Brown is a wide receiver who can get open at will on the outside and will command 120 plus targets on his own. His ability to run routes to perfection gives Brady a second ‘always open’ downfield target which could result in a dramatic decrease in White’s targets. White will undoubtedly see fewer plays called for him but will always be a check-down or audible option when he is indeed on the field. Damien Harris was already set to threaten his snap count and Brown now threatens his target count. It is safe to now consider White an RB3 with a flex2 floor.