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DraftKings NFL Week 1 DFS Ownership Projections

By Alex McKinnon

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 1: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs smiles at tight end Travis Kelce #87 during player warm ups before a game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 1: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs smiles at tight end Travis Kelce #87 during player warm ups before a game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /
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DraftKings NFL Week 1
BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 16: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) tries to stay loose on the sidelines during the game against the Baltimore Ravens on December 16, 2018, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Week 1 QBs – DraftKings NFL week 1 highest projected ownership

Entering his fifth season, Jameis Winston ($6600) will aim for his first full season since 2016-17 after serving a suspension to start the season last year. The Buccaneers/49ers game has the second highest expected total on the main slate (50.5) and is a major target for DFS players.

The 49ers gave up the 7th most DraftKings points per game (20.4) last season to the QB position but have made some significant changes to their defense including the signing of Kwon Alexander, the trade for Dee Ford, and drafting Nick Bosa with the 2nd pick of the draft.

Last season, Winston put up 312 yards on 29 completions with 2 TDs in a 27-9 win against San Francisco. With Chris Godwin developing into a deadly second option behind Mike Evans and the further development of guys like OJ Howard, Winston is a rather safe option despite being the second highest price tag behind on Patrick Mahomes.

The earth-shattering ‘rookie’ season for Patrick Mahomes pins high expectation on the 23-year old in his sophomore season. At $7200, Mahomes is unsurprisingly the highest priced QB on the slate and he should sit atop that list for the majority of the season.

The only thing that can slow Mahomes ownership down is his match up. The Jaguars allowed the 9th least amount of DraftKings points per game (17.1) to opposing QBs last year and have added one of the more intimidating pass rushers to enter the draft in recent years with Josh Allen (the other Josh Allen). With the combination of a mean pass rush and a pair of lock down cornerbacks in A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, Mahomes may be somewhat contained in the opening contest despite his electrifying offense…

The incumbent #1 pick, Kyler Murray ($5600), begins his career against the Detroit Lions on Sunday and will be among the highest owned QBs on the board. As of now, the only official data that we have on Murray consists of his preseason totals (23 of 36 for 193 yards) over three starts.

Despite the general expectations of the Lions, they do hold a moderately talented defensive unit. With shutdown corner Darius Slay and the addition of Trey Flowers in the off-season, Murray will face a challenge in his first start as an NFL quarterback.

As the first rookie to start at quarterback for the Cardinals since 1954 combined with the cloud of doubt surrounding his size, Murray has an audience of watchful eyes even before kick off. He is a dual-threat which always offers a high floor. I am very confident in his receivers with Larry Fitzgerald entering his 16th season who is now flanked by fellow veteran Michael Crabtree and young guns Christian Kirk, Trent Sherfield, KeeSean Johnson and others. Not to mention, he has one of the most premiere pass catching running backs in David Johnson.

Cam Newton ($6500) appears to be healthy enough heading into Week 1 of the NFL season where he will face a Los Angeles Rams defense that only allowed 19.1 DK points per game last year to opposing QBs. Newton has been consistently average in the last three seasons following 2015 where he threw 35 TDs and only 10 INTs. That being said, I think this is the best cast he’s had around him in a long time and he has a chance to be great this year with DJ Moore, Chris Hogan, Curtis Samuel, Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey catching balls.

Newton ranked second among QBs in carries last season and third in rushing yards per game at 34.9. I am slightly considered that the foot injury he suffered in the 3rd preseason game may slow him down just a bit. At $6500, he may be a little pricey considering the defense he is facing and with guys like Kyler Murray saving you $900.

Baker Mayfield ($6400) enters his second season with a shiny new weapon, Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham Jr. joins Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Antonio Callaway and David Njoku in a passing unit that will make it hard for Baker to fail in year two. Baker had already lead the league in ‘deep pass attempts’ last season with 75 and that was without one of the elite deep threats in the league (OBJ).

Despite the hype heading into Week 1, I am not sure this is the week to jump on a Baker super-stack. The Titans ranked 28th in pace last season and hold on to the ball for a long time. That combined with the fact that they let up the 6th least amount of DK points per game (16.7) to QBs will limit Baker’s ceiling.

Other players with high ownership: Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garappolo

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk?

Price does not seem to be a determining factor this week for the quarterback position with the top 4 highest priced QBs expected to be among the top 5 owned. Out of this bunch, I am most fond of Jameis Winston for his match up and Kyler Murray based on his price. Winston will likely be the highest owned on his slate but wont be much higher than 10-15% ownership.