DraftKings NFL Week 1 DFS Ownership Projections
Week 1 RBs – DraftKings NFL week 1 low ownership targets
Le’Veon Bell ($7100) will step onto an NFL field for an official game for the first time since the 2017-2018 season as the Jets take on the Bills in Week 1. Le’Veon is an interesting play this week in tournaments as he sits firmly between the high-priced bell cows (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott) and the low-priced studs such as Fournette, Cook and Carson.
This should create a relatively tame ownership total against a Bills defense that allowed the second most TDs per game on the ground (1.1) and the 8th most DK points per game to opposing running backs at 27.3 per game. Bell will not see nearly the shares he had with Pittsburgh and there is some rust expected, but he is a very sneaky play on a deep slate.
Kerryon Johnson ($5800) is among the running backs with a low-price tag with a high expectation of touches but does not share the same ownership projections as options like Cook, Carson and Fournette. Johnson and the Lions will face a Cardinals defense that allowed the 2nd most DK points per game to opposing RBs last season at 31.5.
Opposing teams called a running play 47.8% of the time vs. the Cardinals last season who allowed an abysmal 154.9 rushing yards and 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game. The only thing that could scare me off is the expected touches for secondary running backs C.J. Anderson and Ty Johnson but at his price, Kerryon is still an awesome pivot away from the high owned guys in the $5500-$6500 range.
This time last year, Todd Gurley ($7900) was among the most dangerous and unavoidable play on any slate he was in. Thanks to issues with his knee and the Rams spending a 3rd-round pick on a supplemental running back in Darrell Henderson, Gurley is much less of a threat.
Similar to Bell, Gurley is in no man’s land within that $7000-$8000 range and I expect his ownership to be below 5%. Gurley and the Rams face a Panthers defense that allowed the 7th least amount of DK points against opposing running backs with 21.2 per game. The Rams also have a potent passing attack with Goff throwing to Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds among others. Putting Gurley in your lineups this weekend is high-risk, high-reward with his price tag and limited touches.
Following the season-ending injury to Lamar Miller, Duke Johnson ($5100) and Carlos Hyde were acquired by the Houston Texans to fill the massive hole left in the Texans running attack. Johnson and the Texans face a Saints defense that allowed the 4th least amount of DK points per game to opposing RBs at 19.8 last season.
That being said, Johnson has been much more effective in the passing game over his career and will likely be targeted more as a receiver for Deshaun Watson and the Texans on Sunday. At $5100, Johnson is one of the best value plays on the board and should have a decent floor based on his receiving potential and expected snap count.
Other players with low ownership: Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, Derrick Henry, Devonta Freeman, Damien Williams, Marlon Mack
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
Although I find more value in playing running backs such as Leonard Fournette and Chris Carson this weekend, I will certainly have decent exposure to Le’Veon Bell and Kerryon Johnson with a sprinkle of Duke Johnson. Depending on the structure of the rest of your lineup, if you are able to find low-cost value elsewhere, Le’Veon Bell is a perfect fit at $7900 while both Johnsons’ are great pivot plays in the sub-$6000 range. I would suggest waiting a week on Todd Gurley to learn more about his snap count and shares of the offense.