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DraftKings NFL Week 1 DFS Ownership Projections

By Alex McKinnon

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 1: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs smiles at tight end Travis Kelce #87 during player warm ups before a game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 1: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs smiles at tight end Travis Kelce #87 during player warm ups before a game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /
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Tyreek Hill NFL Draft Chiefs
LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 19: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) catches a touch down pass during a NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams on November 19, 2018, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Week 1 WRs – DraftKings NFL week 1 low ownership targets

Tyreek Hill ($7600) recently signed an extension with the Chiefs to keep together one of the most potent offenses in the NFL with the combination of Mahomes-Hill-Kelce, among others. Despite Mahomes high-ownership expectations, Hill seems to have fallen to the wayside of DFS lineups. Coming off a season where he had 87 receptions, 1,479 yards, 12 TDs, 151 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD, Hill remains as one of the most deadly offensive weapons in the league. The problem he faces this weekend is his match up. With Jalen Ramsey expected to shadow Tyreek Hill, be cautious of how much exposure you have to him in your lineups.

With the loss of Tyrell Williams and the absence of Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen ($7300) becomes infinitely more valuable in the Chargers offense if they are to succeed this season. Surprisingly, Allen remains in the middle of the pack when it comes to ownership despite his obvious expected shares in the pass game. Similar to Hill, the reason may lie with the fact that the Chargers face the team that allowed the least amount of DraftKings points (28.2) per game last season.

On the other side of the ball, T.Y. Hilton ($6600) is Andrew Luck-less and starts a new adventure with Colts QB Jacoby Brissett. In 2017, when Brissett started for the Colts from Week 3 on, Hilton had the worst statistical season since his rookie year. This combined with the fact that the Chargers have one of the best pass defenses in the league puts Hilton in a tough spot. I still believe there is some value in Hilton’s lower price tag and Brissett’s familiarity with his #1 receiver.

Michael Gallup ($4300) had an excellent preseason and is expected to command the #2 receiver role this season along side Amari Cooper. Although Cooper was not on the final injury report, he had been dealing with a foot injury and could be slightly limited in Week 1 against the Giants. At $4300 and sub-5% ownership, Gallup is a strong candidate for a value play in your lineup.

Similarly, Calvin Ridley ($5100) should be in the sub-5% ownership group and is a low-cost value option. Despite having nearly half of the yardage production that #1 receiver Julio Jones put up, Ridley scored 2 more TDs than Jones with 10 total on the season with only 64 catches. With high touchdown equity and a strong Vikings defense concentrating their efforts on Jones, Sanu, Hooper and others, Ridley has the potential to have a boom-or-bust game.

Rashard Higgins ($3200) is the number three receiver behind Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry with the absence of Antonio Callaway and is more of a punt play if you are looking to stack the Browns or identify the best punt plays on the slate. At $3200, Higgins would only need 10-15 DK points to hit value.

Other players with low ownership: Christian Kirk, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Alshon Jeffery, Robby Anderson, Cole Beasley, Corey Davis, Jaron Brown, John Ross

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

Despite his tough match up against Jalen Ramsey, whom he put up 4/61/0 against last season, Tyreek Hill is just too good of a play at such a small ownership level that I will have plenty of exposure. One of my favorite plays on the board would be Keenan Allen who should dominate the touches for the Chargers. Michael Gallup and Calvin Ridley are awesome plays at $5100 or lower.