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MLB DFS picks and pivots September 10: Twins to win

By Brian Tulloch

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 07: Mitch Garver #18 of the Minnesota Twins rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning of the game at Target Field on September 7, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 07: Mitch Garver #18 of the Minnesota Twins rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Cleveland Indians during the first inning of the game at Target Field on September 7, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 23: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins pitches in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Target Field on August 23, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Teams are wearing special color schemed uniforms with players choosing nicknames to display for Players’ Weekend. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Sample lineup

I am going to approach this sample line-up a bit differently today in the mindset of working backward so follow along if you please.

IF: Miguel Sano

IF: Jorge Polanco

IF: CJ Cron

OF: Max Kepler

OF: Nelson Cruz

OF: Eddie Rosario

UTIL: Ryan McBroom

UTIL: Danny Mendick

If we simply work backward here today by locking in a non-Coors stack like the Dodgers or in this case the Twins, and punting with two one-offs, we are left with a ton of money to spend at pitcher and in this case, over $19K for both arms.

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Ironically enough, you end up in the price range of two nearly identical options of Zack Wheeler and Jose Berrios who at $19.4-$19.5K are in many ways, the same DFS outlook. Wheeler and Berrios are solid, albeit minor home favorites against Arizona and Washington with 22% K rates and 10% swinging strike rates that are strong metrics but typically not worth paying nearly $20K for.

However, what you do have here are two arms in the midst of must-win pennant race games, ones that will be asked to go deep into games with both Wheeler and Berrios sporting double-digit K upside in 2019.

I think on this slate if folks pay up, it will be for someone like Walker Buehler or they will drop down to chalk Chase Anderson because, well pitchers against the Marlins always is a thing. All that means is that arms like Wheeler and/or Berrios become the forgotten arms at seemingly too expensive price points.

Think back to last night, the winning lineup paid up for pitching, going with a deGrom/MadBum duo and a 6 man Astros stack. Guess what they did as a one-off? Used Nico Hoerner, the Cubs rookie SS, at $3.9K as a punt one-off. Hoerner paid off in a big way with 4 RBI’s, 3 hits and 26 fantasy points and it is that kind of build that I could see winning again here this evening.

Good luck all! Let’s get weird!

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