Fantasy Football: Week one dudes, duds, and deceivers

Fantasy Football: Week One Duds

James Conner, Running Back, Pittsburgh Steelers

We’ll start out with one that you definitely shouldn’t overreact about, but his week one performance was concerning for fantasy owners. The Steelers offense was clearly out of sync the entire game against the Patriots, leading to their 33-3 loss in New England.

Conner had just 10 carries in the game for only 21 yards. He did catch four passes for 44 yards which helped bring his fantasy point total up to a somewhat respectable 10.5 PPR points, but that is still a very low total for a guy that went in the first round of many fantasy drafts.

Obviously the flow of the game had a lot to do with the lack of running by the Steelers, but Conner’s lack of production on the carries that he did receive is what’s concerning. 21 rushing yards is never acceptable for a top back, especially on 10 carries.

New England has a solid defense, but they aren’t exactly known has high-end run stuffers. The Steelers have never had much luck in Foxboro, but you would have thought that Conner would still be more involved in the Steelers gameplan from the beginning, and would have been a bit more effective with the runs that he did get.

I wouldn’t worry too much about Conner, Ben and the Steelers. I’m sure they will get their offense going soon, but they do have another tough match-up this week against the Seahawks. I wouldn’t give up on Conner yet by any means, but if a Steelers fan in your league is willing to pay a high price for him, I wouldn’t make him untouchable.

Devonta Freeman, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons

With Tevin Coleman finally gone and Devonta Freeman finally healthy, there was a lot of positive hype surrounding Freeman this offseason. With an improved offensive line and a healthier team than at the end of last season, the Falcons were expected to run the ball more often, more effectively, and with Freeman.

Week one was nothing short of a disaster for Freeman and his fantasy owners (which includes me in one league). The Falcons got down early and were pass-heavy for the majority of the game so Freeman saw just eight carries. With those eight carries, he managed just 19 yards and lost a fumble, the ultimate sin for a running back.

With the Freeman fumble, back-up running back Ito Smith saw more playing time, getting six carries of his own and leading the team with 31 rushing yards. Falcons rookie guard Chris Lindstrom broke his foot and will likely miss eight weeks. After a disappointing 4.1 PPR fantasy points in week one, all of those factors are not helping the peace of mind of Freeman fantasy owners.

I’m sure, like a lot of these notable performances, was mostly due to the flow of the game. Next week that Falcons could strike first and lean on Freeman and he could wind up with 100 yards and two touchdowns. But his stock, I think, was hurt the most of probably anyone after week one.

Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, and Denver Broncos D/ST

These three team defenses were likely drafted as starters, all owned in over 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues. All three had incredibly disappointing performances that will make you think twice about putting them back in your starting lineup again next week.

The Jags had by far the toughest match-up of the group and really the toughest of any defense in the league this week, going against the Kansas City Chiefs. But Jacksonville was drafted in most leagues as a top-five defense and currently sit second to last after week one. No one is ever expected to stop the Chiefs offense, but if anyone could slow them down, many would think that the Jags would have a chance. They got lit up for 40 points and did not record a single positive fantasy defensive stat.

Another disappointing defense was the Eagles. They were up against division rival Washington Redskins with new quarterback Case Keenum. I think Keenum is a fine QB who has often been under-appreciated, but Philly allowed him to be the sixth-ranked QB in fantasy after week one.

He’s not quite THAT good. The Eagles gave up 27 points and recorded just one sack. A disappointing outing from a defense that was expected to thrive in a great match-up.

The most upsetting performance from a defense for me was from the Denver Broncos. Denver brought in defensive wizard Vic Fangio in as their head coach after turning the Chicago Bears into the best defense in the league as the defensive coordinator. The Broncos faced an Antonio Brown-less Raiders team that went 4-12 a season ago and gave up 24 points and 357 yards in a loss. Additionally, with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb on the ends, they didn’t manage a single sack.

Stefon Diggs, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings

Another highly-drafted that had a very bad week mostly because of the way his game went, Stefon Diggs owners have reason to be slightly concerned after week one. Now again, I’m not saying that Diggs is a bust and that you should sell low after one game, but it was a bit odd to see such a talented receiver with only two targets, two catches, and 5.7 PPR fantasy points.

The Vikings got up big early and really relied on the run the rest of the game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins attempted just 10 passes. They only threw the ball 10 times! I certainly don’t expect a repeat of that again at any point in the season, but it was pretty clear that the Vikings want to run the ball.

With that offensive mindset, receivers become less and less valued for fantasy. Diggs is a very good receiver who will certainly get his looks and points in different situations, but the offense that Minnesota seems to be running doesn’t have me excited about Diggs or Adam Thielen.

Both were drafted in the first handful of rounds in most fantasy drafts and could suffer from a healthy Dalvin Cook this season.

Philip Lindsay, Running Back, Denver Broncos

Lindsay is someone that I was avoiding pretty much at all costs this fantasy draft season. After an incredible rookie season a year ago, it was clear that the Broncos wanted to get some other backs some more work this year.

All offseason long people at Broncos camp reported that they expected to see a lot more Royce Freeman this season. Then when Denver signed free agent Theo Riddick, that was it for me. That left Lindsay to do the tough ground and pound, between the tackles running for a lot of the game, but Freeman to get the goal-line work and Riddick to get the receptions out of the backfield, and that is where the fantasy points are.

Riddick is currently sidelined with an injury, but Lindsay still did not have a good performance in week one. Lindsay got 11 carries (just one more than Freeman) and managed 43 yards to Freeman’s 56. He did catch four passes for 23 yards, but that will likely decrease once Riddick comes back.

Lindsay’s ADP was RB26 in PPR, ahead of guys like Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Tarik Cohen, and Derrius Guice, who I feel all have much more upside. Lindsay will be part of a timeshare for the foreseeable future, and barring an injury, is not likely to put up numbers anywhere near to last year.