MLB DFS picks and pivots September 11: Can Mr. Sparkle shine again?
MLB DFS – Building our bats
Let’s not beat around the bush today, sure Coors was a flop last night but with temperatures back up over 80 and a two-touchdown game total, I see no reason to avoid this spot that is every bit as good tonight as it was last night.
The Rockies are the team I think I want to side with as a core stack as they can lineup a stout group of left-handed batters to attack the splits of RHP Dakota Hudson. Left-handed batters have a lofty 1.4 HR/9 rate this year against Hudson with an ISO just shy of .200 and a 44.5% hard contact rate.
The Rockies are going to trot out Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon in the heart of their order around Story/Arenado and even the bottom third of the lineup will be lefty-heavy with Sam Hillard, Dom Nunez and Raimel Tapia providing some salary relief for that stack.
On the other side of this game, Antonio Senzatela will be tasked with keeping the Cardinals bats quiet here tonight and I think against this right-handed heavy team, he could do just that. Senzatela has a 60% GB rate this season against RHB with only a .157 ISO and at home versus righties this season he has limited batters to a 0.99 HR/9 with a 59.6% GB rate.
With 6 of the 9 batters in the Cardinals projected line-up hitting from the right side, I actually think they could disappoint again here this evening. The one guy, even in the R/R match-up I would be willing to take a chance on is Marcell Ozuna who has seen his price drop from $9.6K yesterday to $8.8K today and with a .241 ISO, 50% HC rate and 92 MPH EV against RHP this season, it would only take one mistake from Senzatela to pay off with power.
Now, you did not come here to eat Coors chalk so let’s find you that pivot.
To be clear this is not a Mets homer call, but I think stacking the Mets tonight in a warm Citi Field against Robbie Ray could pay big dividends with the wind blowing straight out to centerfield.
Ray is coming off a start against the Reds where he was forced to leave early due to blisters on his pitching hand and tonight, will pitch in New York with a massive hitters’ umpire behind the plate in Jerry Meals.
Ray’s splits are pretty standard as righties hit him hard and for power, surrendering a 1.7 HR/9 rate this season with a .209 ISO and 42% HC rate. This Mets lineup can get very right-handed heavy and has the kind of pop that if Ray is struggling with control/blisters and leaves pitches over the plate – well the apple could be rising many times this evening.
Pete Alonso is the clear top play with a .366 ISO against LHP this season but do not overlook the other four bats in this line-up with .200+ ISO marks against left-handed pitching this season with J.D. Davis, Wilson Ramos, Amed Rosario and Todd Frazier all batting from the right side.
The nice part about this stack, outside of Alonso, no other hitter is over $7.6K so if you want to go pitching heavy tonight, this Mets stack offers you power upside at a cheap price that will likely go completely ignored on this slate.
Slate Overview: I think you can argue to go high/low at pitcher tonight in order to get Coors Field exposure or if you want to pivot off the chalk, go with two high-end arms and stack up the Mets in what could be a low owned potential blow-up spot for Ray.
Good luck all!
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