MLB DFS picks and pivots September 16

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Minneapolis, MN-September 10: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) pitches in the fourth inning. (Photo by Leila Navidi/Star Tribune via Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Monday pitching breakdown:

We have a seven-game MLB DFS slate here on Monday Night with a game in Coors Field and a surprisingly deep pitcher pool for such a small slate that will allow us to sort through multiple different roster construction paths.

Jose Berrios ($19.9K) is the clear top dog on this slate for me as a result of him pitching at home in an ideal match-up against the strikeout heavy Chicago White Sox. The White Sox projected line-up has just under a 26% K rate against RHP and Berrios is averaging 25 fantasy points over his last two starts against them (both on the road) where he struck out 7 and 8 batters.

Berrios is a massive -250 home favorite and Chicago’s IRT of 3.3 is second lowest on the slate. Berrios may have a name-value that makes us think he has higher upside than he has really shown, as his 22.7% K rate puts him more likely to give you 20-25 fantasy points than a 30+ point outing. However, with the price under $20K, I think FantasyDraft has safeguarded you a bit with that “safe floor” in mind and you can anchor to him as an SP1 without having to sacrifice your bats.

Dakota Hudson ($16K) will toe the rubber at home against the Washington Nationals and steps to the mound tonight with six straight games of 18 or more fantasy points including a game in Coors, and has struck out 7 batters or more in 3 of his last 5 outings.

Hudson’s splits against RHB really jump out tonight against a Washington team that should have only 2 LHB in their lineup, as he has limited right-handed batters to a .128 ISO with an elite 65% groundball rate with a 3% spike in his K rate to 19%.

Most importantly, it is Hudson’s birthday today – so #BirthdayNarrative in full effect tonight!

While FantasyDraft is still showing Sonny Gray as the pitcher for the Reds, it was announced late Sunday that Gray would be pushed back and Kevin Gausman ($16.3K) would get the start against the Cubs. Now, Chicago has been red-hot at the plate but tonight with the wind blowing in at Wrigley and cool temperatures, we could see things start to normalize for the Cubs bats.

Keep an eye on the lineup here tonight as Anthony Rizzo may join Javier Baez on the sidelines which could boost Gausman’s stock here. My only concern and something we need to watch out for is a pitch count as Gausman has pitched only out of the pen since coming to the Reds so without a pre-game confirmation on pitch count, it will be hard to justify using him as an SP2.

Zach Davies ($12.3K) feels like the SP2 chalk as he is a strong home favorite against the Padres here this evening and well, chalk Kyle Davies is not something I am super thrilled about rostering. Davies has a 5.44 SIERA which is third-worst on this slate and nearly two full runs higher than his ERA which signals that regression is coming.

I think in order to jam in Coors tonight, people will drop down to Davies as their punt arm in the hopes he can squeeze out double-digit points as he has in 3 of his last 5 outings. Honestly, that is really all you can hope for tonight as Davies has minimal K upside and has not thrown more than 90 pitches since the end of July.

I think Berrios is your SP1 lock and your SP2 choice can vary between Hudson, Gausman and Davies based on how you want to attack the bats.