5 players the Chicago Cubs should trade this offseason
3. Jon Lester
Lester has had a rough 2019 campaign, with a 4.59 ERA while allowing a National League-high 191 hits (10.7 hits allowed per nine innings) over 29 starts. His strikeout and walk ratios have been fine (8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), but the good fortune he had last year (4.39 FIP, 3.32 ERA) has gone away his year (4.32 FIP).
Lester called himself the weak link in the Cubs’ starting rotation earlier in the season, and he has a 6.94 ERA over his last nine starts dating back to Aug. 1 as his ERA for the season has risen nearly a full run. But he has also allowed one run or less over six innings in three of those outings, so consistency has been a prominent thing.
Lester is making $22.5 million this year, but that drops to $15 million next year with a mutual option for 2021 ($25 million, with a $10 million buyout). That option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings pitched in 2020, or a total of 400 innings between this year and 2020. Lester is at 160.2 innings this year with a couple starts left, so the 400-inning two-season total feels unlikely.
He last pitched 200 innings in 2016, but there’s at least some chance Lester reaches that mark next year and locks the Cubs into $25 million for his age-37 season.
Trading Lester would be a pretty aggressive move, and the market for him won’t be robust. But if only to remove the idea of carrying a bloated $25 million on the 2021 payroll, the Cubs should be looking at how they could move the veteran left-hander.