MLB DFS picks and pivots September 19: Eye of the Tiger

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DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 29: Starting pitcher Mike Clevinger #52 of the Cleveland Indians leaves the dugout after an interview following a game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on August 29, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Clevinger struck out 10 in eight innings in a 2-0 win over the Tigers. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Thursday pitching breakdown

The five-game Main Slate tonight kicks off at 6:35 PM EST so make sure you note the earlier start time and interestingly enough, with all the games starting by 7:40PM EST, we should have lineups really early on today with no late hammers to worry about.

At this point in the season when picking my starting pitchers, I want two things – 1) strikeout upside and 2) something to play for.

Now, strikeout upside isn’t unique to this late in the year since that has been our go-to all year long but the something to play for, well that is where we need to focus over the next week and a half as there are very few arms we can count on to go deep into games.

Mike Clevinger ($22K) checks both boxes here today as his 35.5% K rate and 15.5% swinging-strike rate lead the slate as the Indians remain just a half-game out of the wild card race. Tonight, Clevinger should be 100% owned on a slate this small considering he gets the best possible match-up against a Tigers team he just dominated to the tune of 10K’s and 40 fantasy points.

Clevinger has gone over 100 pitches now in 12 straight starts and will take ona Detroit projected lineup with a 25% plus K rate against RHP this season. Clevinger has faced the Tigers twice this year, racking up 10 and 12K’s in those outings while putting up 40 and 35 fantasy points. If Clevinger is any less than 100% owned on a short slate like this, that means people are simply getting cute.

Jack Flaherty ($21.5K) is the “pivot” play off Clevinger and where I expect most will go Clevinger/cheaper SP2 tonight, I will stay #OnBrand and argue for you to go double-barrel aces as I do more often than not in Picks and Pivots.

Flaherty has been simply elite over the last month of action, sporting a 35% K rate which is the 5th highest mark in baseball and sits only behind guys like Cole/Verlander and just ahead of arms like deGrom, Clevinger and Strasburg.

Flaherty has thrown 100+ pitches in four straight starts and with this series against the Cubs a critical division-winning late season match-up, I think that pairing him with Clevinger is our best roster build this evening. The Cubs are without Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo, and we saw a similar elite K arm like Sonny Gray, dominate this Cubs lineup just 48 hours ago with 9 K’s and 28 fantasy points over 6.2 IP.

Flaherty and Clevinger are priced up today but the price points are not overly prohibitive considering there are no real must-have offenses on the slate and the fact you can get two arms with top 10 K rates the last month, who are both near locks to go 100+ pitches, gives me the ability to build a 50-60 point floor before I even get to my bats.