NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 3
By Joe Metz
NFL DFS: New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants
Earlier in the week, it was announced that Daniel Jones would get the nod for his first start in the NFL with Eli Manning heading to the bench. Jones was impressive throughout the preseason and comes into a cupcake matchup against a Bucs secondary that allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to QBs last season. He’s too risky for cash games, but this could be a phenomenal spot to buy-in on a rookie in GPPs before the masses do.
With Jones at the helm, it’s easy to assume the pass catchers will receive a bump. Evan Engram has been the focal point of the aerial attack, garnering a 25.58% target share to start the season. I expect Jones to look his way early and often against a secondary that was bottom-10 in the league in fantasy points per game to TEs, making him viable in all formats.
Sterling Shepard remains in the league’s concussion protocol, but reports are indicating that he should have a good chance of suiting up for week 2. If that’s the case, he slots in as an interesting value play after catching 6 of 7 targets in week 1. Operating out of the slot, he could see a ton of short-yardage looks from Jones.
Saquon Barkley remains the obvious top play here and a potentially competent quarterback only makes him a stronger play. He’s second on the team in targets (14) in addition to garnering a workhorse role on the ground. He’s averaged an absurd 4.6 yards before contact and 3.2 yards after contact and faces a defense that was 31st in the league in rush DVOA last season. Lock and load.
Cash Plays: Barkley, Engram
GPP Plays: Jones, Shepard (if active)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If there were any quarterback outside of Jameis Winston leading this offense, you could potentially make an argument that they would flirt with the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’re stuck with the ineptitude of Winston, who’s erratic play makes it hard to rely on this team in anything more than tournaments.
With that said, Chris Godwin has been a massive bright spot. He saw a 24.7% increase in target share between weeks 1 and 2 and has, so far, overtaken Mike Evans as the WR1 in Tampa Bay. This is a defense that should be exploited, making Godwin a fine cash play. Evans, on the other hand, has only recorded 89 yards on 6 receptions through 2 games without a score. Sure, he’ll have a breakout game eventually, but until then, there’s no reason to go here in cash. O.J. Howard has been another disappointment this season and wasn’t even targeted in the passing game last week. Head coach Bruce Arians spoke to the fact that Howard’s play has been nothing short of abysmal and that he’s a much better player than he’s shown. Even so, Winston has only targeted him 5 times, posting a target share of 8.33%. This makes him impossible to trust until he proves otherwise.
Just like Evans and Howard, this backfield is impossible to trust. The same week that Arians said we’d see an expanded role for Ronald Jones, Peyton Barber saw 23 carries for 82 yards. Do not go here.
Cash Plays: Godwin
GPP Plays: Evans