NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 3

NFL DFS: Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals

While the Bengals got absolutely obliterated by the 49ers, there were some massive bright spots in the receiving core yet again from a fantasy perspective. John Ross and Tyler Boyd have dominated the target market as Ross has commanded 24.2% and Boyd close behind with 23.16%. While Boyd has been the more reliable option in terms of moving the chains, Ross has been the high-upside play, demonstrated by his 11.8 aDOT (almost doubles Boyd’s) on only a 52.17% completion rate. I’d consider them both cash viable this week, with Boyd presenting a more stable floor and Ross presenting a higher ceiling. Since both of these players command roughly 50% of the targets, I have no interest in Tyler Eifert or other pass-catchers until they prove to be more consistent options.

While his two receivers are both viable, it’s hard for me to endorse Andy Dalton as anything more than a large-field GPP play against a Buffalo defense that ranks 8th in pass DVOA. His volume, however, is what keeps him afloat, as he’s attempted 93 passes in just two games.

Joe Mixon has been a massive disappointment this season behind a brutal offensive line, averaging less than 2 yards per carry in both of his games. Until we see more production, it’s safe to stay away.

Cash Plays: Ross, Boyd

GPP Plays: Dalton

Buffalo Bills

One of the early-season surprises, the Bills are looking to go 3-0 to start the season behind 2nd year QB Josh Allen, who’s already made an impact on both the ground and through the air. He’s rushed for 2 touchdowns on 17 total attempts while tossing another pair of touchdowns. Given his upside on the ground and the fact that the Bengals rank 25th in Defense DAVE (combination of preseason projection and performance so far) and just allowed a heap of production to the 49ers, he’s safe enough for all formats.

John Brown is seeing a larger target share (27.69%) than he ever has in his career and he makes sense as a player to couple with Allen. He also ranks first on the team in aDOT (13.5), providing a solid ceiling to go along with a volume safe enough for cash games. Cole Beasley has had his fair share of volume (20.0%), but he’s not a player I’d want to hang my hat on this week given the lack of big-play upside.

Devin Singletary has had growing excitement around him after a few big plays, but this is a spot where I’d recommend being cautious. While his 9.5 yards-per-carry rate from week 2 is enticing, take note of the fact that he only saw 6 carries to Frank Gore‘s 19. On top of that, he went from playing 70% of the week 1 snaps to only 33% in week 2, while Gore went from 28% to 59%. Until we have more clarity in the backfield, both players lack the safety for cash games, while Singletary maintains enough big-play upside for tournaments.

Cash Plays: Allen, Brown

GPP Plays: Singletary