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MLB DFS picks and pivots: Friday, September 20

By Brian Tulloch

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JULY 19: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the bottom of the second inning at Oracle Park on July 19, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JULY 19: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the bottom of the second inning at Oracle Park on July 19, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – JULY 19: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the bottom of the second inning at Oracle Park on July 19, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Friday Pitching Breakdown:

At this point in the season with playoff spots locked up for some and so many others looking to next season, finding the handful of teams with something to play for is going to be key especially when it comes to finding our arms.

As an example, one night after the Yankees clinched the AL East, what kind of hangover lineup will New York throw out there and is J.A. Happ simply treating this as a bullpen day to get ready for the postseason?

The good news – we have three arms tonight locked into playoff battles and they also happen to be the three most expensive (best) arms on the slate in Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom and Charlie Morton.

While I certainly respect “The Biebs”, paying $23.9K for him when I can get a $2K discount for Jacob DeGrom ($21.9K) seems like a non-starter for me. From a pure metrics perspective, deGrom leads the slate in K rate (31.5%) and swinging-strike rate (15.5%) and over the last month has been every bit his Cy Young self with a 34.1% K rate which is 6th in baseball and tops on this slate.

Charlie Morton sits at a price point just below de-GOAt at $21.4K and has a really interesting match-up against the Red Sox as the Rays remain dead-locked with the Indians for the final wild card spot. Normally picking on Boston would not be something we pay a premium to do but with Mookie Betts and JD Martinez banged up, this is frankly not a lineup I think we should avoid.

Need proof? Go look at the lineup Boston rolled out yesterday versus the Giants which included such bashers as Gorkys Hernandez, Chris Owings and Marco Hernandez and tell me you don’t have some interest?

The last arm with something on the line gives you some solid SP2 savings if you want to drop down to Zack Greinke ($18.8K) against a similarly banged-up Angels squad that we just saw Masahiro Tanaka dominate. Greinke started out slow with the Astros and while the division is locked up for Houston, they remain only a half-game up on the Yankees for that all-important home-field advantage in the American League.

Greinke is coming off his two best outings against the Royals and A’s, pitching 6 innings with 6 K’s and 26 fantasy points per start. With the Angels missing Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton, there is a reason that LAA has the lowest IRT on the slate at 2.8 with Greinke being a massive -340 home favorite.