Fantasy football lineup advice: Week 4 BOOM or BUST!
Fantasy football lineup advice – Running Back
BOOM:
James Conner, PIT vs. CIN
So far in 2019, Pittsburgh’s stagnant offense without Ben Roethlisberger has obviously hindered Conner’s fantasy value as he currently sits as the overall RB24 in PPR formats. He’s plodded his way to just 2.9 yards per carry, with 43 rushing yards being his highest single-game total in the early-going. However, after finishing last season as fantasy’s RB6, it’s tough not to think he’ll turn it around sooner or later.
That could come as early as this week going against a Bengals defense that’s ceded 34.5 FPPG to the running back position this season (second-most in the league). Only the lowly Dolphins have allowed more yards on the ground this year, suggesting Conner could be in for a big game. It’s been a rough start, but that changes for the third-year bruiser in Week 4.
Leonard Fournette, JAX @ DEN
While he hasn’t necessarily hurt owners this season, Fournette hasn’t exactly done much to excite them either. In three games, he’s posted fantasy scores of 11.4, 12.7, and 15.2, respectively. He’s seeing good volume, averaging 14.3 carries and 4.6 receptions per game, but hasn’t yet reached pay-dirt. As one of league’s true workhorse backs, it’s safe to assume the touchdowns will come in the not-so-distant future.
In Week 4, he’ll have a great chance at finding the end-zone for the first time this season against a Denver defense that’s surrendered the most rushing TDs (five) in the league to RBs. The Broncos have ranked as a bottom-10 defense against opposing tailbacks, allowing 24.5 fantasy points and 118 yards per game. This matchup has the looks of the Fournette breakout we’ve been waiting for.
BUST:
Todd Gurley, LAR vs. TB
Boy, was I wrong about Gurley this season. Coming into the year, I was as high on the former Offensive Player of the Year as anyone, downplaying his workload and injury concerns for 2019. In three games, Gurley’s volume has taken a massive dip from last season, going from 22.5 touches per game to just 16. Now averaging just 10.4 FPPG, he suddenly looks to have turned into a touchdown-dependent RB who isn’t getting much volume in the passing game, either.
While the Buccaneers look like a cake-walk matchup on the surface, they’ve actually been dominant against opposing ball-carriers to start the year. Tampa Bay has allowed just 10.9 FPPG to the position, which ranks first in the NFL. This could be partly due to an overmatched secondary that’s been pulverized through the air, but the stats don’t lie. Look for the Rams to take a similar pass-heavy approach this week, making for another underwhelming outing for Gurley.
Sony Michel, NE @ BUF
Talk about touchdown-dependent. Michel’s value early in the season has been solely tied to finding the end-zone, as he’s still yet to record a reception thus far and is averaging an ugly 2.4 yards per carry. He has scored twice this season, but has looked putrid otherwise. Things may not be getting any better, either, as James White is set to return this week and Rex Burkhead continues to impress.
It’s tough to sit a guy who plays on such a prolific offense and sees 15 carries per game, but Michel may not have much room to run against the division-rival Bills, who have a top-12 defense against RBs this season. White looks to be a much stronger start this week in what should be a close, grind-it-out game for Brady and co. If you’re starting Michel, you’re simply banking on a touchdown, making him an incredibly-risky play.
Sleeper:
Wayne Gallman, NYG vs. WSH
Gallman is going to have some big shoes to fill in what looks like a 4-8 week absence for Saquon Barkley. However, he gets a sensational matchup against the Redskins in what will be his first start of 2019. The Giants are extremely thin at running back behind Gallman, with FB Elijhaa Penny being the only other ball-carrier on the team’s active roster. Don’t expect him to post Saquon-like numbers, but he should be viewed as a sufficient plug-and-play option against Washington.