NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 4
By Joe Metz
NFL DFS: New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
No Antonio Brown? No problem. The Patriots just keep on trucking through the first quarter of the season and come into another favorable matchup this week against the Bills. In the first game after Brown was released, the WR target share broke down as follows:
- J. Gordon: 11 targets
- J. Edelman: 10 targets
- P. Dorsett: 7 targets
- J. Meyers: 3 targets
It seems reasonable to assume that Julian Edelman will continue to be a target hog and lead the team more often than not. He should line up in the slot against Siran Neal, who’s posted a brutal PFF grade of 59.1 this season, making Edelman a cash-safe play that’ll come at lower ownership. Josh Gordon should see far more deep-ball opportunities now that Brown isn’t a threat, but I wouldn’t expect 10+ targets per game, making him an ideal GPP play. The same can be said for Phillip Dorsett, as it feels like his uptick in targets seems to be more so a product of James White’s absence than anything else.
Sony Michel scored an early touchdown last week, but continued to look extremely inefficient. The glaring concern is the fact that he saw a season-low 17 snaps out of the backfield in a game without James White. He’s essentially played himself out of DFS consideration while Rex Burkhead has done the opposite. He saw 57 snaps and 17 touches last game and if White is to miss another week to be with his family, Burkhead would be an elite value. If James White returns, however, I’d want to take advantage of his sub-$5k price tag on DraftKings, as he should immediately step back into a heap of the vacated targets from Brown.
Cash Plays: Edelman, White (DK)
GPP Plays: Gordon, Burkhead, Patriots D/ST
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen continues to hold a stable fantasy floor with his rushing ability and has now rushed for at least 46 yards or a touchdown in each game thus far. This matchup with the Patriots, however, is not a matchup that I want to target him in. They rank 1st in pass DVOA and 3rd in rush DVOA, lowering Allen’s floor and ceiling considerably.
If you insist on targeting Allen, it would make sense to pair him with John Brown. He leads the team in target share (24.24%) and has the 2nd highest aDOT on the team amongst receivers with 10+ targets (13).
Frank Gore saw success in the absence of Devin Singletary last week, but I wouldn’t at all expect the same this week, as the Bills should be trailing throughout the game and the Pats rank 3rd in rush DVOA. If Singletary is active, he could be an elite GPP value play given his tendency to play on passing downs and rip off big plays.
Cash Plays: none
GPP Plays: Allen, Brown, Singletary (if active)