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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 4

By Joe Metz

CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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NFL DFS
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 22: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after passing for a touchdown during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions

Kansas City Chiefs

It’s hard to dub an offense as unstoppable, but that’s exactly what Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are right now. The craziest part of Mahomes’ game right now is the fact that he would still be a solid QB1 if you only used his first half stats, per Scott Barrett:

Playing Patrick Mahomes is like playing LeBron James or Mike Trout; you never need convincing, it’s all about the salary. He’s an elite play in all formats.

Stemming off of Mahomes, Travis Kelce is in the same boat. He’s an Uber-safe option at the TE position as he leads the entire NFL in air yards (279), aDOT amongst TEs with 10+ targets (11.2) and ranks 3rd in targets (25). While Mahomes will spread the ball amongst his receivers generously, Kelce is guaranteed to get his.

Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson have all had their share of shining moments this season and over the two weeks without Tyreek Hill, their target share breaks down below:

  • Watkins: 23 targets
  • Hardman: 12 targets
  • Robinson: 13 targets

Watkins remains the WR1, but it’s been Hardman and Robinson that have been the producers. All three are viable in GPPs, but it’s too hard to differentiate them in cash.

The Lions have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to running backs this season, but until we have clarity on the availability of Damien Williams, it’s hard to hang your hat on LeSean McCoy or another running back. If he misses, McCoy slides into the GPP discussion.

Cash Plays: Mahomes, Kelce, Watkins

GPP Plays: Hardman, Robinson, McCoy (if Williams OUT)

Detroit Lions

While the Chiefs rank 19th in pass DVOA and 17th in rush DVOA, they still come in as a highly attackable team from a fantasy perspective due to the fact that, in most situations, teams will be airing in out in order to keep pace with their offense. This makes a player like Matthew Stafford an extremely viable GPP option. We could realistically see 40+ pass attempts here and in his one game with 40+ this season, he posted 385 yards and 3 touchdowns.

This is also a massive benefit to both Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay. They’ve posted PFF grades of 79.3 and 73.7 respectively as they’ve commanded just under 48% of the total targets from Stafford. Golladay profiles as the better cash play given his 25.71% target share and 3 red-zone targets through three games, but Jones Jr. has his share of appeal in GPPs against Bashaud Breeland who’s failed to post a PFF grade above 61 in 3 of his last 4 seasons (including this year). T.J. Hockenson‘s week 1 breakout is looking more like a reflection of the ARI defense compared to his involvement, as he’s ben silent in the 2 proceeding weeks.

Kerryon Johnson has only recorded 6 targets through 3 games as the Lions have divided the passing-down work amongst 4 running backs, keeping him off of my radar in cash games in a game that I expect Detroit to be trailing in.

Cash Plays: Stafford, Golladay

GPP Plays: Jones Jr., Johnson