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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 4

By Joe Metz

CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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NFL DFS
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – OCTOBER 21: Indianapolis Colts running back Marlon Mack (25) catches a short pass and runs in 29-yards for a touchdown during the NFL game between the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills on October 21, 2018, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders faced a tough test last week in the Vikings and while things should ease up a tad this week, it’s still not an offense you want to put a ton of stock in. Derek Carr has a low floor and a low ceiling, making him a player to avoid in DFS this week, but he’s clearly dubbed his favorite target; Darren Waller. He’s commanded an elite 30.85% target share through 3 weeks after a 14-target game last week against the Vikings. If he commands even hand of the targets against the Colts, he should be in line to smash, as they’ve allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (10.0).

Tyrell Williams recorded a touchdown for the third straight game and leads the team in red-zone targets while coming in 2nd behind Waller in overall target share (17.02%). If Pierre Desir’s knee is still bothering him, we could see another nice outing for Williams, but he’s too volatile for cash games.

The Colts have been brutal against the run this season, ranking 30th in rush DVOA and have given up the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing backs (21.00 per game). Josh Jacobs has been rather stagnant since Week 1 and has seen a decrease of touches in each, but if the Raiders can stay competitive, he could see similar usage to week 1 (24 touches) and smash value here.

Cash Plays: Waller

GPP Plays: Williams, Jacobs

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts offense has been quietly effective and we might finally be in a spot where I feel comfortable rostering them in DFS. The Raiders rank 27th in pass DVOA on the season, which bodes well for the stack of Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton. Brissett finally topped 300 passing yards last week against the Falcons while posting an impressive 118.1 passer rating. His price remains too low against a leaky secondary and pairing him with Hilton, who holds a 26.88% target share (43.75% in red-zone) could be a GPP-winning strategy.

Eric Ebron ranks second on the team in target share (12.90%), but falls over 13% behind Hilton and has a catch rate below 60%. Both he and Jack Doyle are less than appealing options at the tight end position this week.

Marlon Mack is another usable piece this week, even against an Oakland front 7 that is currently 4th in rush DVOA. Mack has recorded at least 18 touches in every game this season and has been the only running back with a red-zone attempt on the team (8 total). They’re using him as their bell-cow and in a game where Indianapolis could realistically lead for the majority of the game, he could be another slate-breaker at lower ownership.

Cash Plays: Brissett, Hilton, Mack

GPP Plays: none