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DFS advice: Week 4 fantasy football start or sit

By Matthew Catalano

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) walks off the field after a 30-22 loss against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL Divisional Round at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on January 12, 2019. (Max Faulkner/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/TNS via Getty Images)
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) walks off the field after a 30-22 loss against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL Divisional Round at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on January 12, 2019. (Max Faulkner/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/TNS via Getty Images) /
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DFS Advice: Running Backs to Sit

Todd Gurley (LAR) vs. TB

Sitting one of the best runners of the game today may seem like sacrilege, so I won’t blame you if you ignore this advice, but please hear me out first before you make a final decision. We all know about Gurley’s knee issues with arthritis and the reduced workload he will receive due to it. That’s just the problem though, Gurley isn’t getting the volume he had received in the previous two seasons. He ranks twelfth among active running backs in opportunity shares (68.5%) and is only averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game (30th).

The Rams will also be hosting a stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense where opposing backs have only been able to carve out about 8.0 fantasy points per game against them in 2019. Given that his carries have dipped to 14.7 per game compared to his previous 18.3, and with a stingy opposing defense awaiting him, we may see a dull performance from the talented back. Again this is a bit of a gray area for me given his talent, but his recent usage, fantasy production, and match-up make me feel just a little leery about starting Gurley with full confidence. If possible find a good one-week substitution in place of Gurley.

Aaron Jones (GB) vs. PHI

I’ve been a big believer in Aaron Jones since last offseason, but the recent trend surrounding him has put some doubt in my mind. If we are to look back at this past Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos, Jones rushed ten times for 19 yards. If it weren’t for his two rushing touchdowns, he would have had a complete dud of a day in terms of both fantasy and football in general. Two factors that contributed to Jones’ poor running efficiency were the fact that Denver is a top defense in preventing backs from gaining yards and the other reason is Jamaal Williams.

Williams was handed the ball 12 times and proved to be much more efficient than Jones, averaging nearly 5.0 yards a pop. Williams is slowly eating into Jones’ snap shares (Jones: 60.0% & Williams: 30.0%). and Packers’ head coach Matt Lefleur appears to be staying true to his word when he said he was going to attempt to even up the touches between the two backs. The Eagles are another top-ten defense in terms of rushing yards allowed, and I suspect we will see the same storyline this week as we did against Denver.

Frank Gore (BUF) vs. NE

The ageless wonder Frank Gore continues to amaze us as he still manages to find ways to be productive in fantasy. I think that is not meant to be for this week, as Gore will be squaring off against the New England Patriots and their stout defense. If the Bills fall behind early in this game, which is possible given how well the Pats have been playing, it will cause them to abandon the run in order to catch up. This, in turn, will hurt Gore’s opportunity shares, thus making him an unattractive fantasy running back option heading into this week’s action. While Gore is a serviceable back in key match-ups, this one against New England is not one of them.

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