College football Week 6 odds: Win probabilities for every Top 25 team – Don’t sleep on Florida

Before placing any bets down on college football Week 6 games, be sure to reference the win probabilities for every Top 25 game for an inside edge.

Alabama and Clemson have dominated the top of the polls in recent seasons, and the top challengers to their reign this year appear to be the usual suspects from Columbus, Athens and Norman. Nevertheless, parity is more common than most college football fans realize.

On that note, it’s actually a bit surprising that only one ranked team was upset up an unranked opponent last week.

Sure, a ranked Kansas State team lost to unranked Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys were favored to win by both Las Vegas oddsmakers and CFB Winning Edge. And there were close calls, but North Carolina’s failed two-point conversion saved Clemson from embarrassment. That leaves No. 15 Cal, which lost 24-17 at home to Arizona State Friday night as a 4.5-point favorite.

However, careful readers might have noticed CFB Winning Edge actually projected the Sun Devils had a 58 percent likelihood of winning in Berkeley. As a result, our win probabilities column posted its best performance of the year: a perfect 15-0 record.

But we’re not here to gloat. After all, 15-0 is completely unsustainable. In fact, based on the average win probability from our point spread projections, we would have expected to post an 11.86-3.14 record in Week 5 on average.

This week, there are 16 games featuring Top 25 teams. Based on the win probability projections below, we can expect 2.88 upset losses on average. Therefore, combining Week 5 and Week 6, we would expect a total of six favored teams to go down to underdogs.

Will parity balance the scales this weekend, giving us five or more upsets in Week 6? We explore every game featuring a ranked team to find out which teams have the best chance of going down – including another one in which we disagree with the oddsmakers.

Friday, Oct. 4

No. 18 UCF at Cincinnati

UCF began the 2019 college football season with College Football Playoff aspirations. Though it was never likely the Knights would reach their goal given the team plays in the American Athletic Conference, the dream officially ended with a 35-34 loss to Pitt in Week 4.

UCF rebounded with a 56-21 win over UConn in its AAC opener in which the Knights led 56-0 in the third quarter. True freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel solidified his spot atop the depth chart enough that head coach Josh Heupel has explored the possibility of moving former starter Brandon Wimbush to receiver.

Cincinnati also entered 2019 with high expectations and started strong with a 24-14 win over UCLA in the season opener. But the Bearcats’ hopes for a New Year’s Six bowl took a hit when they were destroyed 42-0 by Ohio State in Week 2 and suffered a few injuries to key contributors in the process.

But after back-to-back blowout wins, including an impressive 52-14 victory over Conference USA title hopeful Marshall last week, Cincinnati is poised to challenge for the top spot in the AAC East division. The Bearcats are now healthy on offense, and with quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Michael Warren II leading the way, are capable of pulling off an upset Friday night.

Saturday, Sept. 21

No. 3 Georgia at Tennessee

It’s been a rough season for Tennessee, and for its head coach Jeremy Pruitt. The Vols appeared poised to take a big step forward on the field in 2019, and CFB Winning Edge preseason projections listed Tennessee among the top 25 teams in the country and had the Vols favored in nine regular-season games.

Then the season started. Tennessee lost each of its first three games against FBS opponents, and all in painful fashion: the embarrassing season-opening loss to Georgia State, the Week 2 meltdown against BYU, and a 34-3 drubbing at the hands of rival Florida in the SEC opener in Week 4. Pruitt’s bad season grew even worse this week following the release of video related to the arrest of linebacker Jeremy Banks and the audio from a phone call between Pruitt and the arresting officer.

Oh, and now Tennessee must face SEC East heavyweight Georgia. The Bulldogs survived a visit from Notre Dame two weeks ago, and head to Knoxville following an extra week of rest (important for a team that has been banged up on the offensive line and in the secondary) and preparation.

No. 25 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State

Despite the obvious difference in home-field advantage, it’s still remarkable that Ohio State has the same projected win probability against a ranked Michigan State squad as Georgia does against Tennessee. But after we dive into the numbers, it’s not all that surprising the Buckeyes are a three-touchdown favorite at home.

The Spartans rank in the top seven nationally in both total defense (253.8 yards allowed per game) and yards allowed per play (3.93). However, Indiana – the same Indiana squad the Buckeyes beat 51-10 earlier this season – put up 356 total yards and averaged 5.09 yards per snap in its 40-31 loss to Michigan State last week. Though the Spartans feature some of the best defensive players in the Big Ten, and the offense has shown signs of life with Brian Lewerke regaining his 2017 form at quarterback, Michigan State has yet to face a team as complete as Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have outscored opponents by an average of 52.4-8.6 through five games this season – which is a historically dominant start to the season. Ohio State also ranks third nationally net yards per play (plus-3.80). Quarterback Justin Fields and running back J.K. Dobbins could each push their way into the Heisman Trophy conversation, and pass rusher Chase Young – who already has eight sacks to his credit this season – is on the shortlist to be the No. 1 overall pick (or at least the first defensive player selected) in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Utah State at No. 5 LSU

Former Ohio State backup Joe Burrow has blossomed into a legitimate Heisman candidate as a senior at LSU. Burrow ranks second in the nation in passing offense (380.0 yards per game), second in yards per pass attempt (12.3) and first in completion percentage (80.6). He has also thrown 17 touchdown passes and just two interceptions.

The explosive offense is great for the Tigers’ playoff chances, but defensively, LSU doesn’t look like a title contender. Injuries have played a role, and starters Rashard Lawrence, Michael Divinity and K’Laon Chaisson have all missed significant time and might not make it back for Saturday’s non-conference clash against Utah State. But the increased pace of the offense and poor tackling have also contributed to the Tigers drop to No. 32 in total defense (320.0 yards allowed per game) and No. 49 in scoring defense (23.3 points allowed per game).

The Tigers will be tested defensively again Saturday. Utah State quarterback Jordan Love is one of the most talented players at the Group of Five level, and the young offense around him was buoyed significantly by the addition of Utah transfer receiver Siaosi Mariner. But can standout linebacker David Woodward and the Aggies defense slow down LSU? Not likely.

No. 6 Oklahoma at Kansas

Net yards per play (yards per play gained on offense minus yards allowed per play defensively) is a good measure of team performance. Oklahoma ranks No. 1 in net yards per play (plus-5.04) by a wide margin, having gained an incredible 10.36 yards per snap on offense and surrendering a respectable 5.32 on defense (which ranks No. 58 nationally). Georgia (plus-3.86) ranks second in the country, and it’s worth noting the 1.18-yard margin between the Sooners and Bulldogs is the same as the difference between the Dawgs and No. 10 Oregon (plus-2.69).

Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts has been unstoppable both through the air and on the ground, and it appears highly unlikely Kansas will be able to slow him down Saturday. The Jayhawks have allowed 424.4 yards of offense per game this season, which ranks No. 9 in the Big 12, and have surrendered 5.37 yards per play on average to Indiana State, Coastal Carolina, Boston College, West Virginia and TCU. The best offense in the group in terms of yards per play (Coastal Carolina, 6.10) ranks No. 51 in the nation in that category.

In other words, Kansas ranks toward the bottom of the Big 12 defensively and hasn’t played a top-60 offense yet. Can you imagine what Oklahoma will do to the KU defense this week?

Kent State at No. 8 Wisconsin

Wisconsin improved to 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten with its 24-15 win over Northwestern last week. The Badgers, who utilized two defensive touchdowns to overcome offensive struggles, posted a season-low 87.54 Team Performance rating in the win.

Of course, Wisconsin still ranks No. 6 in Team Performance overall, meaning the Badgers have earned their No. 8 ranking in the most recent AP Top 25. Kent State, meanwhile, ranks No. 102 in Team Performance (74.73) despite posting a season-high 84.87 game grade in a 62-20 win over Bowling Green in Week 4. The Golden Flashes are now 2-2.

CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Wisconsin 97 percent

Bowling Green at No. 9 Notre Dame

The biggest favorite of the week in college football is Notre Dame against Bowling Green. The Fighting Irish are currently 45.5-point favorites according to most Las Vegas sportsbooks. Though CFB Winning Edge sees things shaking out a little tighter (our projection calls for the Irish to win by 42.2).

CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Notre Dame 99 percent

No. 7 Auburn at No. 10 Florida

Unquestionably the biggest game of Week 5 is the Top 10 SEC slugfest between Auburn and Florida. The Tigers have been one of the most impressive teams in all of college football this season and have already picked up key victories over quality opponents Oregon, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

Most striking is the fact Auburn has played so well with a true freshman quarterback, Bo Nix, who has gotten better each week. In his most recent start, Nix completed 16 of 21 pass attempts (76.2 percent) for 335 yards (16.0 yards per pass) and two touchdowns without an interception. He also ran for 56 yards (which led the team) and scored a touchdown in the 56-23 victory.

However, Nix has often struggled against pressure (he ranks No. 99 in passing grade when blitzed, according to Pro Football Focus). Meanwhile, Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of the most blitz-happy play-callers in the country. The Gators are pretty good at it, too, having recorded 24 sacks this season – nine more than the closest SEC defense and second-most in the country. It will only help to have defensive end Jabari Zuniga and cornerback C.J. Henderson back from injury.

But can Florida score enough to upset the Tigers? After all, the Auburn defense features one of the most talented defensive lines in the country. Gators quarterback Kyle Trask will also be making just his third career start (fewer than Nix to this point). But Florida – an underdog according to oddsmakers – should actually be favored, according to CFB Winning Edge.

No. 11 Texas at West Virginia

In its last game, Texas beat Oklahoma State 36-30, passing the first big test of the Big 12 conference schedule and keeping the Longhorns in position to make another run at the conference championship game.

The Horns won despite fielding a team hit hard by the injury bug. More than a dozen Texas players have already missed game time due to injury, with the running back position and secondary impacted most. While the team isn’t fully healthy yet, Texas was able to take advantage of a much-needed off week following the win, and prepare for the long trip to West Virginia.

The Mountaineers are also 3-1 overall and 1-0 in Big 12 play, have won two in a row, and the team is also coming off a bye week. However, West Virginia’s record is deceiving. The Mountaineers been outscored this season (102-100), and have been out-gained by an average of 0.93 yards per rushing attempt and 0.5 yards per play overall (which ranks 100th in the country).

Purdue at No. 12 Penn State

Let’s take a bit of a tangent here: CFB Winning Edge has built one of (perhaps the only) publicly available projection models that attempt to incorporate injuries to individual players each week. Some might make an adjustment for quarterbacks lost to injury since QBs are unquestionably the most important players on the field, and potentially an All-American-level player.

With that in mind, some models might have accounted for Purdue losing quarterback Elijah Sindelar, and likely accounted for the loss of All-American receiver Rondale Moore, who suffered a leg injury on the same play. Both have been designated “Out” against Penn State this week. But it’s highly likely no major adjustments were made for the loss of starting offensive lineman D.J. Washington last week, or linebacker Markus Bailey earlier this season. Purdue also entered the season without its two most talented running backs and has not surprisingly struggled to run the football.

Following Penn State’s most impressive performance of the season against Maryland (a 59-0 victory that earned the No. 1 rated Team Performance rating of the week), Las Vegas oddsmakers set an opening line for the Purdue-Penn State game Sunday afternoon and listed the Nittany Lions as 16.5-point favorites. CFB Winning Edge released its early projected point spreads early Sunday morning, which already reflected the Boilermakers’ updated injury report. Our early point spread was Penn State -24.5 and grew to its current 28.7-point gap following official news Sindelar and Moore would not play. As of Wednesday, the Vegas spread had grown to Penn State -27.5.

Cal at No. 13 Oregon

After starting 4-0, Cal climbed all the way to No. 15 in the AP Poll ahead of its Week 5 home game against Arizona State, but the Bears lost 24-17 and lost starting quarterback Chase Garbers in the process. Nevertheless, with Evan Weaver (who leads the nation with 78 total tackles and 43 solo stops) leading the way, Cal has a defense capable of keeping any game close – and often close enough to pull out a win. Oregon has a big talent advantage, but that doesn’t mean the Bears will be intimidated. Just ask Washington.

Oregon, like Cal, is 1-0 in Pac-12 play after picking up an important win over a North division rival. The Ducks beat Stanford 21-6 two weeks ago and were then given extra time to prepare for this week’s first-place showdown with Cal. In addition to the division title implications, Oregon should be properly motivated for the game given there is zero wiggle room in the Ducks’ quest for a playoff bid after losing to Auburn in the season opener.

No. 14 Iowa at No. 19 Michigan

There are two Top 20 matchups in Week 5, with Michigan hosting Iowa in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines bounced back from an embarrassing loss to Wisconsin by beating Rutgers 52-0.

Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis moved from the booth to the sideline, and the team responded with its best offensive performance of the season by far. Michigan posted season highs in points, passing yards (335), total yards (476) and yards per play (7.0), finally flashing the potential of Gattis’ new up-tempo attack. Michigan also played well defensively and posted season lows in rushing yards allowed (46), total yardage (152) and yards allowed per play (2.87).

What does one good win mean for Michigan? It’s difficult to say, especially since Iowa will pose a much tougher test than the Scarlet Knights (the Hawkeyes beat Rutgers 30-0 earlier this season, for what it’s worth). The Iowa defense ranks No. 5 nationally in total defense (251.0) and No. 3 in scoring (8.5) despite losing multiple starters in the secondary and several key contributors elsewhere.

The Iowa offense, which has been solid overall and looked very good in last week’s 48-3 win over Middle Tennessee (which Michigan beat 40-21, for what that’s worth), should receive a boost with the return of left tackle Alaric Jackson to practice this week.

No. 15 Washington at Stanford

Washington lost to Cal 20-19 in the Pac-12 opener for both squads way back in Week 2. The one-point loss put the Huskies in a disadvantageous position in the Pac-12 North and might have ended Washington’s playoff hopes. But it’s important to note the unique circumstances surrounding the game, including the lightning storms that delayed the contest several hours. We should also point out the improvement the Huskies have shown since, beating Hawaii, BYU and USC by a combined score of 125-53.

Stanford is set to host Washington Saturday night. The Cardinal, now 2-3 overall and 1-2 in the Pac-12, ended a three-game losing streak by escaping Corvallis with a 31-28 win over Oregon State. Quarterback Davis Mills, starting in place of the injured K.J. Costello, and operating behind an offensive line decimated by injury, threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns, and also caught an eight-yard TD pass from tight end Colby Parkinson.

Mills is expected to get the starting nod again in Week 6, and with the Cardinal still banged up on the O-Line, it’s not surprising Washington is a heavy favorite.

No. 16 Boise State at UNLV

Following UCF’s loss to Pitt, Boise State is now the highest-ranked team among all G5 programs and has the inside track to the New Year’s Six. It’s highly unlikely the Broncos’ 36-31 win over Florida State in Week 1 will be enough to push Boise State into the playoff conversation, but the best hope would be for the Broncos to run the table through the Mountain West in dominant fashion.

A 30-19 win over Air Force wasn’t impressive on paper, but Boise State has another opportunity this week against UNLV. The Rebels lost 53-17 to Wyoming last week and could be without starting quarterback Armani Rogers and running back Charles Williams against the Broncos after both were removed from the game a week ago.

No. 21 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

Oklahoma State hasn’t missed a beat offensively despite breaking in a new starting quarterback in redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders. In fact, Sanders has elevated the Cowboys’ rushing attack, which currently ranks sixth in the country (291.0). Of course, the biggest reason the Pokes have had so much success on the ground is Chuba Hubbard, who leads the nation in rushing yards (938) and is tied for the FBS lead with 10 TDs on the ground.

After a strong start defensively this season, Texas Tech has allowed 515 rushing yards combined in back-to-back losses to Arizona and Oklahoma. The Red Raiders were victimized for seven rushing touchdowns during that span and allowed 5.66 yards per carry in the process.

Tulsa at No. 24 SMU

The Pony Express has a new look in Dallas. The SMU Mustangs improved to 5-0 with a 48-21 win over USF on the road last week, and as a result, the program is back in the AP Top 25 for the first time since receiving the Death Penalty three decades ago. SMU has averaged 6.41 yards per play on offense, including 8.9 yards per pass attempt (a figure that also ranks in the top 25 nationally).

Tulsa has a less sparkling 2-2 record, but both losses came at the hands of ranked opponents. The Golden Hurricane has shown improvement defensively, though Tulsa is still susceptible to the pass. SMU has an overall talent advantage in large part because of an influx of Power Five transfers but Tulsa quarterback Zach Smith (a Baylor transfer) has plenty of weapons to work with as well.

CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: SMU 89 percent