DraftKings college football picks October 4: We got it all on UCF

ORLANDO, FL - SEPTEMBER 28: DUPLICATE***UCF Knights defensive lineman Brandon Wilson (13)***UCF Knights wide receiver Gabriel Davis (13) scores how 3rd touchdown during the football game between the UCF Knights and the UConn Huskies on September 28, 2019 at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

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COLUMBUS, OH – SEPTEMBER 7: Quarterback Desmond Ridder #9 of the Cincinnati Bearcats calls signals against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on September 7, 2019 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /

DraftKings college football quarterback picks October 4

Top Tier:

Dillon Gabriel has 1,338 passing yards with 14 touchdowns to only two interceptions so far this year. Still, Stanford was really the only big game that Gabriel had. The thing that worries me here is that Gabriel was just 7-19 against Florida Atlantic and 25-42 with both interceptions against Pitt. His road performances have been below average, which makes it kind of tough to rely on him against this Cincinnati defense.

Middle Tier:

Desmond Ridder had a career game against Marshall. Don’t laugh. Marshall is a solid team. That has me thinking that maybe Cincinnati is in a really good spot at home here. How you feel about that should determine whether you use Ridder or not. Ridder had as many incompletions as touchdowns last week (4). If he can do that again, Cincy might pull the upset and Ridder could wind up being a bargain.

That said, Josh Love is in a much better situation. New Mexico’s defense is horrible. They have allowed 379.5 passing yards per game. Love had a big game against Arkansas before Air Force held him down last week. I expect a total much closer to his line against Arkansas in this one.

Bargain Shoppers:

New Mexico made a chance at quarterback before the New Mexico State game, switching back to last year’s starter, Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti. He had a huge game against New Mexico State, but Liberty shut him down. Neither New Mexico quarterback looks all that appetizing against an improved San Jose State defense, but Tevaka runs enough to give him a try. I do think he has a short leash though, so I wouldn’t go too heavily here.