DraftKings college football picks October 4: We got it all on UCF

ORLANDO, FL - SEPTEMBER 28: DUPLICATE***UCF Knights defensive lineman Brandon Wilson (13)***UCF Knights wide receiver Gabriel Davis (13) scores how 3rd touchdown during the football game between the UCF Knights and the UConn Huskies on September 28, 2019 at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

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UCF running back Greg McCrae dives for extra yardage in the first half against Florida A&M at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Fla., on Thursday, Aug. 29, 2019. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images) /

DraftKings college football running back picks October 4

Top Tier:

UCF’s run defense is solid, so I’m not in any hurry to pay for Michael Warren. Marshall shut down Warren last week and Ridder proceeded to light them up through the air. I tend to think UCF will try to make Ridder throw to beat them as well, which could mean slow going for Warren.

Central Florida has used three running backs with regularity last year and so far this year. That makes it really tough to pick which one is going to be the most successful on any given day. Adrian Killins is the big play guy. He has averaged 7.4 yards per carry, but only has 42 carries. When the going has been tougher, Greg McCrae is the guy that gets the volume.

Killins has poached a lot of touchdowns from McCrae and Otis Anderson has poached from both. To add more confusion, Bentavious Thompson actually has more carries than Anderson. Some of this is due to blowouts. McCrae had the bulk of the carries against Pitt and Stanford, so if you want to use one, go there. Killins only poached one touchdown from him in those two games combined.

Middle Tier:

Ahmari Davis is about the only bell cow on this slate. Warren is losing carries. UCF will use no less than three backs. Davis has 71 carries in four games. Davis isn’t all that shifty, but with all of the uncertainty under center, expect Davis to be the center of the Lobos offense.

San Jose State has had real problems running the ball. Dejon Packer is the lead back and puts up solid numbers, but I think the upside is kind of limited. The Spartans are a better passing team, but they may finally be trying to run a clock out against New Mexico. Packer has some sneaky upside, but it’s not without risk.

Bargain Shoppers:

Cincinnati has spelled Warren more often than they usually do, and it’s all because of Tavion Thomas. Thomas has double digit carries in each of the last three games for the Bearcats. If you need to save some money, this is a solid place to do so.

It’s the same with Bryson Carroll. New Mexico is going to run the ball 50 times a game if they don’t get too far behind. Carroll sees plenty of carries behind Davis and comes with a solid discount.