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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 5

By Joe Metz

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 22: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 22: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /
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GREEN BAY, WI – SEPTEMBER 15: Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) reacts to a play during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings on September 15, 2019 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

PREVIEW

Two NFC juggernauts (yes, my Packers are a juggernaut) collide in what could end up going one of two ways; a shootout or a defensive battle, and I expect it to remain close for the entire game. Both defenses rank in the top half of the league in overall DVOA, but both have offenses that are fully capable of exploding.

Both teams are coming off of disappointing losses last week, but only one will right the ship. This game will likely go under-owned due to more appealing spots, but with Davante Adams battling turf toe, we could see increased opportunity to add to potential fantasy goodness in what should be the game of the week.

CASH PLAYS

  • Aaron Jones (RB-GB): With Jamaal Williams exiting in the first quarter with a head/neck injury last week, Jones saw 84% of the team snaps last week and should be in line for a similar workload against a rather middling rush defense (14th in rush DVOA). He’s under $7k on Fanduel with every-down upside in a game that will also likely see the Packers without WR1 Davante Adams. 
  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB-DAL): The Packers rush defense has been their weak spot this season, as they rank 27th in rush DVOA. Elliott saw 24 touches last week and the most notable part is the fact that backup Tony Pollard failed to see a single touch. Zeke seems to be fully unleashed ahead of the game of the week and a potential shootout, giving him one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR-GB): MVS should slide into the WR1 role if Adams happens to sit, opening up 27.66% of the targets to go around in Green Bay on top of Valdes-Scantling’s current 19.15% share. He’s underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings for the volume uptick that he’s likely to see.

GPP PLAYS

  • Dak Prescott (QB-DAL): Prescott welcomes Michael Gallup back this week and while he laid a dud last week against New Orleans, he could find himself in a shootout this week. The Packers ranks 5th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points per game to QBs (11.5) this season, limiting my exposure to Prescott to GPPs this week, however.
  • Aaron Rodgers (QB-GB): Just about the same rationale for Prescott can be used for Rodgers this week. The Cowboys have limited QBs to the 5th fewest fantasy points per game (12.6) and there’s a good chance he’s without wideout Davante Adams, but Rodgers has a tendency to show up in big games. This is more of a narrative than anything, but if this game has a shot at shooting out, Rodgers will be a key contributor.
  • Amari Cooper (WR-DAL): Even with Gallup back, Cooper possesses way too much upside to avoid completely in tournaments. He leads the team with a 23.48% target share and while he has a tough matchup with Jaire Alexander, if he can get loose for a big play or two, that’s all you’ll need.
  • Geronimo Allison (WR-GB): Allison will likely step into the WR2 role for the Packers with Adams sidelined and help fill the empty 29-30% of targets in Green Bay. He saw a season-high 64 snaps last week and turned in a 3-54-1 line and something similar this week is not even close to out of the question.
  • Jimmy Graham (TE-GB): Graham is another key cog that’s in line to fill the void left by Adams, but he’s laid two goose eggs in four games already this season. If you factor Adams out of the equation, however, Graham is leading the team in red-zone target share (22.73%) and should only see that number rise with Adams out.