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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 5

By Joe Metz

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 22: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 22: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /
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NFL DFS
BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 29: Baltimore Ravens inside linebacker Kenny Young (40) tries to bring down Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) on September 29, 2019, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers

PREVIEW

The Browns rolled last week thanks to a nuclear performance from Nick Chubb, but they’ll have to sort out the passing game if they want to take down the undefeated 49ers in the Bay. The 49ers rank 2nd in pass DVOA and 6th in rush DVOA, so whether or not the Browns are up to the task or not remains to be seen.

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On the flip side, while the Browns rank top-10 against the run (7th in DVOA), they fall to 19th against the run. Against the most obnoxious committee in the NFL, it’s hard to peg which one they’ll allow to go off, making it a hard situation to peg in terms of fantasy.

CASH PLAYS

  • Odell Beckham Jr. (WR-CLE): After playing second fiddle to Jarvis Landry last week, OBJ should be back in the spotlights with Landry in the concussion protocol ahead of week 5. While the 49ers rank 2nd in pass DVOA, they’re rather middling against WRs in particular, allowing the 15th most fantasy points per game (25.1). He still leads the team with a 28.67% target share and if Landry sits, that would open up another 21.68% of the targets and 31.58% of the red zone targets, something that Odell only holds 10.53% of.
  • Nick Chubb (RB-CLE): Chubb steamrolled to the tune of 165 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns while adding 3 catches for 18 yards last week, but faces a tough task against a 49ers defense that’s allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to RBs this season (8.5 per game). With that said, he’s received 20+ touches in all four games this season, making his volume something to feel safe with on a short slate.
  • George Kittle (TE-SF): He’s the most reliable pass-catcher in the 49ers offense, pacing the team with a 27.91% overall target share and 41.18% of the red-zone targets. The Browns have also allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to TEs this season (8.7).

GPP PLAYS

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (QB-SF): Choosing a QB in this game is like pulling teeth because neither feels good, but if I had to pick one, it would be Garoppolo. The Browns fall in the bottom half of the league in terms of allowing fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and while Garoppolo’s volume hasn’t been amazing, he’s demonstrated a higher ceiling than Baker with a 296-yard and 3-TD effort in week 2 against the Bengals.
  • Marquise Goodwin (WR-SF): This is strictly a big-play dart throw, but Goodwin could draw an extremely exploitable matchup against Terrance Mitchell if T.J. Ward is out. His speed gives him the potential to burn Mitchell, who hasn’t posted a PFF grade above 64 in the last 4 seasons, and he only needs one play to do it.

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Thank you for reading my NFL DFS game by game breakdown for Week 5 in the NFL from FanSided Fantasy! Make sure to follow me on Twitter at @JMetz34 for more!