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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 5

By Joe Metz

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 22: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 22: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /
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NFL DFS
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 29: Los Angeles Rams Wide Receiver Cooper Kupp (18) catches a pass during an NFL game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams on September 29, 2019, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

PREVIEW

The Rams/Seahawks game opens the week as the second-highest projected point total (50) on the slate, as the Rams are fresh off of a 55-40 loss in a shootout with the Bucs. Both teams ironically rank in the top half of the league in overall DVOA (Rams are 4th, Seahawks are 15th), which leads me to believe that we won’t see nearly the type of results that we saw last week in the Rams game, even though both teams are top-12 in the league in pace (seconds per play).

The Seahawks have been tougher on the run than they have the pass this season, meaning we could again see heavy involvement from the core receivers in Los Angeles. On the flip side, the Rams have been stingier against the pass (5th in pass DVOA) than the run (9th in rush DVOA), but with a 2-point spread, we could see enough volume to force the Seahawks receivers to produce.

Seeing that this is a showdown slate, players that would not typically be viable are thrust into the conversation with such limited options, reflected below:

CASH PLAYS

  • Russell Wilson (QB – SEA): While the Rams have had a strong defense for the most part, they were picked apart by a far inferior quarterback in Jameis Winston last week. Wilson gets the advantage of playing at home in a 50-point O/U with a 2-point spread, giving reason for optimism that he could see an increase in pass attempts. For perspective, in his last game that totaled at least 50 points (week 3), he attempted 50 passes and topped 400 passing yards, while rushing for over 50 additional yards.
  • Chris Carson (RB – SEA): With Penny once again out, Carson topped 20 touches and 100+ yards from scrimmage without fumbling the ball. He seems to be firm in the good graces of Carroll and has already recorded 10 red-zone carries through the first 4 games.
  • Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR): 46 targets through 3 weeks has Kupp leading the Rams with a 25.56% target share. He’s scored 3 times in the last 2 weeks and is still less expensive than Robert Woods on FanDuel, making him a staple cash play.
  • Robert Woods (WR – LAR): After breaking out for 13 catches on 15 targets for 164 receiving yards, all Woods has to do to cement his return is find the end-zone. He’s second on the team with a 24.44% target share and is another high-floor play, especially on DraftKings with the full-point PPR scoring.
  • Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): He’s the only receiver with a target share over 20% on Seattle (27.27%) and has been Wilson’s go-to option all season. In their last shootout, he tallied an 11-154-1 line on 14 targets. Against a defense that just got torched by Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on deep balls, his ceiling is sky-high.

GPP PLAYS

  • Todd Gurley (RB – LAR): While he did score 2 touchdowns last week, he did so on a measly 5 carries. Oddly enough, last week he also saw a season-high 74 snaps (76%). If the game-script allows, he should see more work and he’s locked in as the red-zone back, but the reluctance of the Rams to fully unleash him leaves him as a risky play for cash games.
  • Brandin Cooks (WR – LAR): Due to the fact that he relies more on big-plays and falls 3rd on the team in target-share (18.33%), Cooks is best-left for GPPs, but has enough upside to net you 13-14 points on a single play.
  • DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): Metcalf is in a similar boat as Brandin Cooks. He sees under 20% of the targets in Seattle and has recently even taken a back seat to TE Will Dissly. Regardless, he possesses elite speed and given the fact that Vegas sees this as a shootout, he has GPP-winning upside on a single-game slate.
  • Will Dissly (TE – SEA): Dissly has come alive over the last three weeks, totaling 4 touchdowns on 18 receptions and 20 targets. The Rams have allowed an average of 10.43 fantasy points per game to TEs, giving Dissly a sneaky amount of upside at a reasonable salary on the showdown slate.