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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 5

By Joe Metz

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 22: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 22: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /
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HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 29: Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) calls out a play during the first quarter during the football game between the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on September 29, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans

PREVIEW

The Texans offense is incredibly hard to predict due to their lackluster offensive line, but against a defense as soft as Atlanta’s, we could see bounce-back games for the entire offense this week. Their implied total of 27 is 4th-highest on the slate and the game’s overall total of 49 is the 3rd-highest on the slate.

On the Falcons side of the ball, they’ll face a defense that ranks in the top half of the league in both rush (10th) and pass (11th) DVOA. Given the fact that they’re likely to be trailing, we could continue to see Matt Ryan air it out, but the fact that they failed to score on 5 separate occasions when crossing the 50-yard line last week raises some concerns.

CASH PLAYS

  • Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU): While he gets sacked more than any quarterback in the league, the Falcons have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and just allowed Marcus Mariota to throw for 3 touchdowns.
  • DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU): This is a prime buy-low spot for a receiver that’s been ice cold. With Kenny Stills potentially out, this should open up more opportunities for Hopkins to build off of his current 29.77% target share. 
  • Will Fuller V (WR – HOU): With Stills potentially out, this should open up more go routes and downfield opportunities for Fuller, who thrived in those situations last season, catching 11 touchdowns in 11 career games with Watson before the start of this season. He’s also played over 90% of the snaps every single week without any issues with injury.

GPP PLAYS

  • Matt Ryan (QB – ATL): He’s thrown for over 300 yards in all four of his games this season and should have plenty of garbage time to continue to do the same. His tendency to turn the ball over this season has me looking elsewhere in cash for his price, but he always comes with enough volume to win a GPP.
  • Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL): After receiving only 25 total touches through the first two weeks, he’s racked up 39 over the last two games and even with Ito Smith back in week 4, he saw 12 of the 14 total attempts. The Texans were just burned by Austin Ekeler and could be burned again if Atlanta can keep it close.
  • Julio Jones (WR – ATL): He’ll line up on the outside against Lonnie Johnson Jr., who is currently ranked 105th amongst cornerbacks with a PFF grade of 35.3. He’s also received 28.57% of the red-zone targets and has asserted himself as a consistent touchdown threat with 4 on the season.