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FantasyDraft NFL – Picks and Pivots for Week 5

By Brian Tulloch

CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 08: Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (22) celebrates a touchdown during the game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Carolina Panthers on September 08, 2019 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte,NC. (Photo by Dannie Walls/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 08: Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (22) celebrates a touchdown during the game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Carolina Panthers on September 08, 2019 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte,NC. (Photo by Dannie Walls/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 22: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) meet at midfield after an AFC matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs on September 22, 2019 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 22: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) meet at midfield after an AFC matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs on September 22, 2019 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

FantasyDraft NFL – A look back at past winners:

It is always easy to open a slate and focus solely on the upcoming week and stare at the first-place prize and think, yeah I have the best lineup ever and start dreaming of that big pay-day. Before we start day-dreaming however I think it could really help us to look back at the first four weeks of the NFL season and what it took to win the big FantasyDraft NFL tournament each week.

First and foremost – what has it taken to win? The winning scores the first four weeks have been as follows: 280.6, 219.78, 265.8 and 252.38 so we have seen some pretty large variances in terms of outcomes and while Week 1 may be an outlier due to early-season mispricing, it may ring true that Week 2 was a true outlier in our data set. All in all, though, the average of these four weeks is sitting right at 255 and if you exclude Week 2’s low score, the average jumps to 266 which basically puts us right at what we have seen win in Weeks 3 and 4.

If we go under the assumption that it will take 266 points to win, that means each of your nine players on FantasyDraft will need to score on average, 29.6 fantasy points so while that lineup you have may seem solid, does it really have the upside to meet those standards?

There are some very clear trends when you start to look at the winning rosters and nothing is more obvious than the fact that a Quarterback needs to be paired with a pass-catching option in a mini-stack as that has been a constant feature every single week. In Week 2 AND Week 4 it was Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews on the winning lineups and in Week 3, the duo of Jameis Winston and Mike Evans was the key.

Week 1 is the one “outlier” here in that they took a QB-WR stack on step further and paired Cowboys QB Dak Prescott with BOTH of Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in a Cowboys aerial attack that hit in a big-time way.

In addition to the stack, especially in the last two weeks, we have seen a consistent trend that the winning rosters have the top two raw point plays on the slate with Evans/Keenan Allen in Week 3 and with Chris Godwin and Nick Chubb in Week 4.

Without over complicating the takeaways, there are two common themes that we see week in and week out – you need to stack your QB with at least one pass-catching option from his team and focus on getting at least two top raw point potential plays.

The funny thing is, stacking and talking raw point plays is nothing new to DFS and while everyone is always looking for the latest edge in DFS, is it possible that the tried and true core strategies are where we need to revert back to?