NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 6
By Joe Metz
NFL DFS: Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns
PREVIEW
The Seahawks head to the dog pound in Cleveland to take on the constantly-disappointing Browns against a defense that was just carved up by the 49ers on the ground. This comes at the perfect time as Chris Carson has really found his stride on the ground and taken command of the Seattle backfield. On top of that, the Browns continue to have injuries plague their secondary, which should bolster the Seahawks passing attack.
On the flip side, the Seahawks also rank in the bottom half of the league (18th) in rush DVOA while ranking in the bottom third of the league in points allowed vs running backs (21.5), wide receivers (27.4) and tight ends (11.7) per game. We could see fireworks in this game, but who will it be that lights the fuse?
CASH PLAYS
Russell Wilson (QB – SEA): He ranks first 1st in the NFL in passing touchdowns (12), passer rating (126.3), air yards per attempt (10.6) all while ranking 2nd in completion percentage (73.1%) and top-10 in passing yards (1,409). He’s having a career year and it won’t slow down against a secondary with their two starting cornerbacks battling injuries.
Chris Carson (RB – SEA): Over the past two weeks without recording a fumble, Carson has averaged 27 touches, 111 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards per game, while adding a receiving score in his last outing. He takes his firm grasp on the backfield and looks towards a Cleveland defense that just allowed 275 rushing yards to the committee in San Francisco – oh boy. Side note; HE’S ONLY $6,000 ON DRAFTKINGS!
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): While his targets were down last week, he still tied for the team lead (4) as the Seahawks opted to run the ball as much as possible. He posted a 4-51-1 line in what can be considered a “down” game and should draw an exploitable matchup against Eric Murray in the slot, the 51st ranked slot corner according to PFF.
GPP PLAYS
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE): When the game script allows, Chubb can explode (see Week 4 vs Ravens). The issue is that Cleveland hasn’t been operating with a positive game script much this season. Regardless, the Seahawks have allowed 21.5 fantasy points per game to RBs and Chubb has handled 20+ touches every week except last (17).
Odell Beckham (WR – CLE): I’m actually pretty close to a fade on Odell, but his upside is unparalleled and his price is dropping. He has a tough matchup with Shaquill Griffin, but his 518 air yards compared to his 335 receiving yards spell some progression on the horizon (i.e. Will Fuller). He’ll continue to build on his 26% target share and if Baker can hit him deep once or twice, that’s all you’ll need.
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA): He showed his “boom” potential last week on a 40-yard score, but doesn’t receive enough volume to warrant consideration in cash on a full slate. What’s appealing here is his projected matchup with T.J. Carrie, who’s 59.3 player grade ranks 71st amongst qualified cornerbacks, who’s 4.43 40-yard dash at the combine would be a pipe-dream now at age 29. Metcalf should have no problem burning past him on a few go-routes.
Will Dissly (TE – SEA): The Browns ranked in the bottom half of the league against TEs through weeks 1-4 and allowed another touchdown to the position in week 5 to George Kittle. Dissly ranks 2nd on the Seahawks in target share (18.06%) and sees that number jump to 22.22% in red-zone situations.