Fantasy football week 6: Exploitable inefficiencies

Fantasy football Week 6: Exploitable inefficiencies

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get more accurate fantasy predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story as we head towards Fantasy Football Week 6!

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. Remember, we’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.
*Note: With only five weeks of data, these efficiencies numbers are extremely skewed. As the season progress, they will become more predictive.

Defenses Struggling Against the Pass and Stout Against the Run

Atlanta: 27th Overall (Pass: 30th, Run 7th)

Oakland: 21st Overall (Pass: 26th, Run 8th)

LA Rams: 17th Overall (Pass: 24th, Run 9th)

Tampa Bay: 13th Overall (Pass: 22nd, Run 1st)

Defenses Struggling Against the Run and Stout Against the Pass

Jacksonville: 25th Overall (Pass: 18th, Run 32nd)

Kansas City: 18th Overall (Pass: 8th, Run 30th)

Green Bay: 9th Overall (Pass: 5th, Run 28th)

Carolina: 8th Overall (Pass: 4th, Run 29th)

Buffalo: 3rd Overall (Pass: 3rd, Run 21st)

Overall Inefficient Defenses

Arizona: 30th Overall (Pass: 27th, Run: 22nd)

Atlanta will head west to take on the Arizona Cardinals, in a game in which Atlanta is a slight -2.5 favorite. Neither of these teams has inspired much confidence recently, but just because their performances haven’t been great, doesn’t mean that fantasy production can’t be plentiful in this spot. Arizona comes into the week as the 30th overall defense and bit worse against the pass. This will be the easiest test, in terms of defensive efficiency, to date for Atlanta.

In addition to the obvious matchup advantages, when looking at the pace of play numbers, it would appear both teams are looking to play fast. Atlanta ranks 5th fastest, in Sec/Play in neutral situations, and Arizona ranks 2nd fastest, in Sec/Play in neutral situations. This increased paces on both sides should lend itself to an increase in fantasy production. It would also appear as if some market movers agree, as the total, which opened at 47, has shot up to 51. I’ll have overweight ownership on Hooper, Ryan, Sanu, Jones, and Ridley.

Metrics Gone Wrong?

San Francisco: 2nd Overall (Pass: 1st, Run: 5th)

After the beat down in primetime on Monday night, the 49’ers’ defense looks to be for real. Even their defensive efficiency metrics look to be for real. However, I would urge you to pause an reflect upon who they have faced so far. These defensive efficiency numbers do account for opponent strength, however, we need the full context. Through five weeks they have faced, Tampa Bay (18th in offensive efficiency), Cincinnati (28th), Pittsburgh (25th), and Cleveland (29th).

For a frame of reference, they’ll be facing the Rams, who rank 12th in offensive efficiency. The game against the Buc’s was the season opener, so Shanahan and the company had all offseason to prepare, and while they did look good, they’ll now face a short week, to prepare for an elite offense. While we’re on the subject of time off, McVay and Rams have the luxury of playing last Thursday, meaning they’ll have significantly more time to prepare for this 49’er defense.

While I loathe “trends” and those that tout trends, this is an interesting and less “noisy” nugget to keep in mind…

With the being said, you’ll need to monitor the injury with Todd Gurley, as that could open up the possibility of playing Malcom Brown. In addition to the running backs, I’ll be targeting Cooks, Woods, Cupp, Goff, and Everett.

Stay tuned to FanSided Fantasy for all the latest DFS and fantasy analysis!